A handful of traigators obtained mass payments after the selection of the new leader of the Catholic Church, Robert Francis Prevost, who was considered an unlikely candidate in the increasingly popular prediction markets that allow users to bet on news events.
Key data
On the site based on Blockchain Polymarket, six users obtained profits of at least $ 20,000 in Prevost bets, according to a publicly available accounting book of all bets made in Polymarket.
At the head of these winners there was a huge gain of 63,650.65 dollars of a bet of $ 1,059.52 of a user called “Justpunched”, a return on the investment of more than 6,000%.
The Polymarket rival, Kalshi, said that a betting on its platform received a payment of $ 52,641 from a 526 bet.
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Prevost was a candidate with few possibilities in both places before the Church announced its selection, with only 1.6% and 1.8% of implicit probabilities in the market in Kalshi and Polymarket, respectively.
That means that a 170 dollar bet in Premost at 12 pm would have generated a payment of approximately $ 10,000.
Large number
40.4 million dollars. That was the total volume of bets in the papal markets of Kalshi and Polymarket.
Cardinal Italian Pietro Parolin was the favorite in both betting houses before the conclusion of the conclave. At least nine trainers in Polymarket lost 10,000 dollars or more betting on the parolin team.
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Key history
Originally from Chicago and graduated from the University of Villanova, Prevost, 69, is the first American Pope.
Kalshi, Polymarket and other market prediction platforms gained relevance during the 2024 presidential elections, especially because their websites bowed more towards a Trump victory than survey -based models.
Among Kalshi’s investors are American billionaires Henry Kravis and Charles Schwab, and Donald Trump Jr., son of President Donald Trump, is a strategic advisor to the company.
This article was originally published by Forbes US
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