Technology stocks continued to move higher this week with another new all-time high posted early in Friday’s trading. After the Nasdaq Composite vaulted over 20,000 this week, I believe sentiment is overly bullish in the short-term, forcing me to want to book profits. And one event potentially involving bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy Friday could mark the top. I will use a zero-cost options strategy to potentially capture any cooling off over the next month in the red-hot Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) . QQQ YTD mountain Invesco QQQ Trust, YTD December has been a fascinating month so far as we have seen more equities inside of the benchmark index (S & P 500) decline versus rise, questioning breadth. However, we are seeing new all-time highs in many names such as Broadcom, Tesla, and Meta, to name a few. The number of stocks in the S & P 500 that are falling has surpassed the number that are rising for 9 straight sessions. This potential bearish signal has only happened in this manner one other time, back in September of 2001. The QQQ dropped 35% in the following twelve months. Many portfolio managers, myself included, have been looking for more follow through on the rotation trade in 2024 (selling Mag 7 names), yet technology has victoriously been the proverbial “ball-hog” all year. The parabolic move higher that the Nasdaq has been one for the history books. MicroStrategy joining elite club? With the Nasdaq Composite Index hitting 20,000 this week for the first time, the tech-laden index has doubled over the past 4.5 years. Before that it took over 20 years for the Nasdaq to double, hitting 5,000 in March 2000 and 10,000 in June 2020. One last reason that we may have seen a short-term top in the Nasdaq 100 is due to MicroStrategy . A classification quirk could get MicroStrategy MSTR admitted to the Nasdaq 100 index at its annual reconstitution due to be announced on Dec. 13 after the close of trading. Why does that scare me? MicroStrategy gets classified as a software company due to its main business before it became the largest corporate holder of bitcoin with more than $40 billion of the cryptocurrency. Software probably accounts for less than 5% of the value of the company. Lastly, MicroStrategy had a market cap of $1.6 billion on Dec 30, 2022. The company now is valued at $89 billion. The Trade (Selling a Risk Reversal) Sold the QQQ 1/17/2025 $549.78 (odd strike price, *see below) for $3.20 Bought the QQQ 1/17/2025 $510 put for $3.20 This spread was established for zero-cost since the call sold was the same amount of premium as it was to buy the downside put. QQQ’s were trading roughly $531.50 during trade. (*Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) announced a special cash dividend with an ex-date of 12/27; as a result, QQQ’s option contracts have been adjusted to reflect this event. The adjustment announcement stated that strike prices would be reduced by $0.21584 and rounded to the nearest penny.) If the Nasdaq 100 cools off by more than 4% between now and mid-January, an investor will profit in an unlimited manner under $510 in the QQQ. However, if the QQQs run further, you will have to manage the short naked call up at $550, which is roughly 3.5% higher from here. DISCLOSURES: (Owns this spread and long QQQ) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
