Meat prices are under pressure towards 2026 due to the outbreak of the cattle screwworm (GBG), United States tariffs and the exclusion of protein in the Government’s anti-inflation package next year, the Mexican Meat Council (Comecarne) warned this Tuesday.
During the presentation of the Panorama of the Meat Sector 2025, the general director of the organization, Macarena Hernández, pointed out that the closure of exports of live cattle — in force since November 2024 — has generated distortions in the market.
According to Comecarne data, Mexico has stopped exporting 1.19 million animals, with an estimated impact of 1,552 million dollars.
In parallel, beef cattle prices registered a maximum annual increase of 15.4% in October.
Read: Government works with ranchers to strengthen the fight against screwworm
“This is a factor that is explaining why consumer prices for beef have had a significant rebound (…) This disease, even though it does affect primary activity, has an impact on the export sector of live animals,” explained Comecarne’s economic studies manager, Ernesto Salazar.
He also indicated that, although the disease has not reduced national production, it has increased operating costs in pens and has restricted mobility to slaughter centers.
He added that reopening exports could take time, as screwworm eradication in previous outbreaks took up to two decades.
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He also pointed out effects derived from the new tariff package imposed by the United States Government, since, although meat maintains preferential treatment under the United States, Mexico and Canada Treaty (USMCA), Comecarne reported that additional inspections and delays at the border have made the transit of refrigerated goods difficult, which impacts the continuity of industrial processes.
Hernández reported that in 2026 the zero tariff scheme for beef and pork will cease to operate within the package against inflation and shortages (Pacic), which will be replaced by a system of import quotas.
According to the directive, the measure could limit the availability of imported protein in a context of high demand.
National consumption of cut meat increased 4.2% this year and reached 11.2 million tons.
Based on the data presented, Comecarne reported that meat inflation averages 15.1% annually, after two years of decreases associated with Pacic.
Salazar affirmed that the anti-inflationary agreement had positive effects and considered that its strengthening would be relevant in the face of the reactivation of market pressures.
The sector also foresees risks derived from the review of the USMCA scheduled for 2026, especially in relation to health rules and continuity of free trade in meat.
With information from EFE
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