The Mexican Institute of Public Accountants (IMCP) said that Mexico does not show signs of a recession, but that fiscal stimuli are required.
“We could not affirm that we are already in an economic recession in Mexico,” said Ernesto O’Farrill Santoscoy, president of the agency’s economic analysis commission.
The economist said that the February confidence indicator showed a rebound and “is not confirming that we are entering a recession.”
“There are another series of indicators that are improving, such as Mexican exports to the United States and the world,” he added.
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“Many economic agents have advanced to the tariff threats of Donald Trump, president of the United States, sending export goods to the US market and there are filling the inventories,” he said.
“Here a better economic activity in the months of January and February is being observed in the manufacturing industry,” he said.
Analysis Group have warned of serious consequences in Mexico and the world if the general Trump tariffs of 25 percent are maintained for a wide period.
“If we take as a definition of recession a generalized fall in economic activity, in addition to permanently (or with some expression over time),” said Ernesto O’Farrill Santoscoy.
Héctor Amaya Estrella, president of the Institute, said that during the first months of 2025, the economy of Mexico has not reached the expected growth in the Income Law of the 2025 Federation.
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From the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit an increase in budgetary income is anticipated, backed by solid economic activity and employment creation.
“But external factors, such as commercial policies implemented during the administration of President Donald Trump, have contributed to the economic slowdown in Mexico,” added Héctor Amaya Estrella.
Rodolfo Servín Gómez, vice president of relations and dissemination of the IMCP, said that fiscal stimuli are missing to move the economy: “We have already said it here in other press wheels, which undoubtedly have to stimulate aspects such as immediate deduction.”
He said that the Mexico Plan contemplates the immediate deduction, “but we are the idea that if it requires making it broader through a decree or a modification to the law to grant more legal certainty to the taxpayer.”
“When you make investments, immediate deduction is required, which is a fiscal stimulus that helps to reactivate the economy and reach the planned goals for economic growth,” said Rodolfo Servín Gómez.
