The longest shutdown of the US federal government disrupted tens of thousands of flights in recent days, and with it, US airlines’ optimistic expectations for the fourth quarter. Now, airlines are grappling with how to reduce the knock-on effects on travelers and their profits, as the government appears set to reopen at the end of the week.
Airlines were expecting steady demand this quarter after corporate and leisure bookings fell in the first half of 2025 due to economic concerns and trade tensions. However, growth in bookings for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday has halved, falling to just 1% since late October, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium, reflecting uncertainty among travelers as the government shutdown dragged on.
The Senate on Monday passed a bill to restore funding to federal agencies, raising the possibility that the shutdown will end this week, with the Republican-controlled House of Representatives set to consider the measure in the coming days.
However, industry officials warn that operational disruptions could persist even after the government reopens.
Air travel was relatively unaffected during the first weeks of the shutdown, with just over 4,000 cancellations recorded between Oct. 1 and Nov. 5, according to data from flight tracking website FlightAware. However, that number skyrocketed to more than 8,000 canceled flights in the past four days alone, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered phased flight reductions at 40 major airports.
Widespread and unpredictable flight disruptions have led to pilots and flight attendants reaching federal duty time limits before completing their routes. This, combined with planes and crews stranded at the wrong airports, is forcing airlines to find replacements quickly to avoid further delays.
To manage the situation, airlines including Delta and United have incentivized crew members at select bases to work additional trips, according to staff messages seen by Reuters. A United Airlines spokesperson confirmed that the company is using premium pay offers more frequently this week for pilots and has also extended similar incentives to flight attendants at some of its bases.
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Airlines are also using reserve crews, personnel kept on standby for unforeseen circumstances. The depletion of this reserve pool could result in significant disruptions during the Thanksgiving holiday, one of the busiest periods of the year for airlines, officials said. The long Thanksgiving weekend begins on November 27.
“What we do today matters, because it will influence how the rest of the month plays out,” Steve Olson, senior vice president of airport and system operations at JetBlue, said in an interview.
Effects on the industry
The recent weakness follows a broader decline in US travel. Airline tickets sold through U.S. travel agencies for trips through the end of November fell 10% year over year last month, according to Airlines Reporting Corp.
“Everyone in the industry is a little worried about the fourth quarter,” Steve Johnson, chief strategy officer at American Airlines, told Reuters.
Last month, American estimated a revenue loss of less than $1 million a day due to the shutdown, similar to its competitor Delta. However, since then, interruptions have increased.
Although the flight cuts occurred during a period of low demand, Daniel McKenzie, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, estimates that the 10% reductions imposed by the FAA would cost the industry about $10 million a day. If the cuts continue through Thanksgiving, costs could reach $45 million a day, not counting lost revenue from postponed travel and last-minute reservations that are expected to disappear.
Low-cost airlines like Frontier and Allegiant face increased revenue risk from flight cuts due to less frequent flights and reduced ability to refit passengers. American, Delta and United, which operate more flights on certain routes, could benefit from passengers who couldn’t be accommodated by the ultra-cheap airlines, McKenzie said.
Although the FAA plans to resume normal operations once funding is restored and there is no further overload on the system, that timeline remains uncertain.
With information from Reuters
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