Remittances to Mexico decreased in November for the eighth consecutive month, dragged down by a lower number of shipments that overshadowed an increase in the average amount of operations.
In addition, BBVA México estimated that shipments will close 2025 at $61.7 billion, a drop at an annual rate of 4.7%.
The capital received in November totaled 5,125 million dollars, 5.7% less than in the same month of 2024, according to figures published on Friday by the central bank.
The number of transactions – coming mainly from the United States – decreased 7.9% annually in the period. However, the average amount per order grew 2.4%.
Banco Base explained that the streak of eight months with drops at an annual rate had not occurred since the period between November 2008 and April 2010, when remittances fell for 18 months in a row, due to the impact of the Great Recession in the United States.
He detailed in an analysis that with November there are 21 months in which the growth at the annual rate of remittances shows an irregular behavior, that is, two or more consecutive months of growth are not recorded. In this period, remittances show an average annual contraction of 1.42%.
He explained that the weakness in remittances is due to the fact that the United States labor market remains weak, which limits the growth of remittances.
Read: Remittances received by Mexico fall 5.1% in the first eleven months of 2025
In addition, remittances continue to be affected by the fear of the undocumented population of being deported, due to the Trump administration’s policy of detentions and deportations, which causes undocumented people to avoid going out to work or carry out other activities.
Purchasing power of remittances falls
Base pointed out that for the Mexican economy what is relevant is the purchasing power of remittances, which is obtained by converting them to pesos with the FIX exchange rate of the month and adjusting for inflation.
In November, the Mexican currency had an annual appreciation of 9.47%, which has a negative effect on the annual growth of the purchasing power of remittances. In pesos, remittances showed an annual drop of 14.61%.
Adjusting for inflation, the purchasing power of remittances fell 17.73% annually in November, the largest decline at an annual rate since May 2013.
Remittances between January and November fall 5.1%
In accumulated figures, remittances decreased 5.1% annually between January and November to $56.469 billion, the central bank said.
Banco Base indicated that this is the first drop at an annual rate for an equal period since 2013 (1.59%) and the largest for an equal period since 2009 (15.74%).
The downward trend in Mexico contrasts with the strong increases recorded in 2025 in several Central American countries with a significant diaspora in the United States, such as El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.
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Remittances to Mexico, an important influx of cash for Latin America’s second-largest economy, have also been in the spotlight for how Mexican drug cartels use them to launder their illicit profits.
The Valmex financial group stated that the downward trend in remittances in 2025 reflects a more adverse environment, affected by changes in trade and immigration policies in the United States.
He added in a report that although the December data could present a slight rebound linked to seasonal factors, going forward it is likely that the continued deterioration in purchasing power will limit the disposable income of families that depend on these resources.
“The levels could remain high, but it is likely that the drop in flows will persist, with relevant implications for private consumption,” he considered.
Mexicans could pay 3,000 million dollars in taxes
BBVA Mexico recalled in a report that starting this month, remittances delivered in cash, money orders and cashier’s checks for shipment from the United States must pay a 1% tax on the total amount.
Remittances sent that originate from a bank account and from credit and debit cards are exempt from payment.
He noted that the Joint Committee on Taxation of the US Congress estimated that it could obtain $10 billion between 2026 and 2034 from the new tax.
If these calculations are correct, and given that three out of every 10 dollars of remittances from the US arrive in Mexico, he predicted that Mexicans could pay $3 billion for the tax on remittances between 2026 and 2034.
With information from Reuters
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