In between January and July the slowdown in employment in the United States and the tightening of President Trump’s immigration policy caused an annual 5.5% drop in remittances to Mexico, the first decrease recorded in this period since 2019.
In this period, remittances that arrive in Mexico added 34,889 million dollars, 5.5% less compared to 36,919 million pesos recorded in the same period of 2024, according to official figures from Banco de México.
A setback for this period has not occurred since 2019, when 21,554 million pesos were reduced to 21,139 million pesos between 2018 and 2019, an year -on -year drop of 1.9%.
In July alone, the remittances stood at 5.330 MDD, an annual contraction of 4.7%, which accumulated four consecutive months of interannual setbacks – and five so far this year – a streak not seen since 2013.
In this regard, Gabriela Siller, director of Economic and Financial Analysis of Banco Base, said that “so many consecutive months of remittances fell from the period from February to June 2013, in which five consecutive months fell.”
“Until now they have been four consecutive (downward) and it is very possible that a fifth consecutive month be accumulated,” he said.
The specialist explained that the fall is due to several factors, including the deterioration presented in the US labor market, in addition to the “fear of migrants who are out there, to do activities.”
Meanwhile, an analysis of Mexican values Casa de Bolsa said that in real terms, by adjusting by exchange and inflation rate, “the remittances registered in July 2025 a real annual drop of 5%, which marked the second consecutive decrease in real terms.”
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“This contraction was due to the combination of lower income in dollars and continuous internal inflationary pressures, which have eroded the purchasing power of these flows,” added the report prepared by the chief economist of this firm, Gerónimo Ugarte and economist Luis Fernando Campos.
Impacts on local economies
The specialists ruled out that the record levels at the end of the year registered since 2020 will be seen again, given the little probability of their recovery in the five months remaining from 2025.
“We may see a contraction of remittances in this 2025, considering that already in more than half of what is going on 2025, a significant fall is being recorded and we see that it is unlikely to be reversed towards the last months of this 2025,” said Janneth Quiroz, director of economic analysis, exchange and stock market in Monex Financiero.
According to the projections shared by Siller, for the closing of this year Banco Base estimates an annual setback of 4% in remittances, while other entities such as BBVA Mexico have planned a fall above 5%, reaching 61,000 million pesos.
The recoil of remittances implies less resources for consumption in highly dependent regions, such as Michoacán, Zacatecas, Guerrero and Chiapas, where they represent more than 10% of state GDP, Siller also warned.
In this same sense, the Mexican Securities report maintains that the “real adjustment reinforces the deterioration signal in the available income of receiving households, which could translate into a lower capacity for consumption in the short term.”
In addition, he indicated that “the descending trend of remittances in 2025 reflects a more adverse environment, influenced by changes in commercial and migratory policies in the United States”, as well as, within, “for the effects of an exchange appreciation and inflationary persistence in Mexico, which would continue to press the real income of families,” concludes the analysis.
With EFE information.
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