Mexico City.- The remittances to Mexico had their deepest fall in June since September 2012 at an annual rate, and analysts expect to begin to show a descending trend after years of sustained growth.
These money flows fell 16.20% to 5.201 million dollars, according to original figures published by Banxico this Friday.
It is also the third month to thread with falls to annual rates, something that did not happen since the period between February and June 2013, when the remittances fell to an annual rate for five months in a row, said the base financial group in an analysis.
Faced with the previous period, the remittances retreated 2.96% after expanding 12.5% in May.
In the first half of the year, shipments to Mexico added 29,576 MDD, a 5.60% drop at an annual rate.
With unstacted figures, remittances in June fell 17.27% per year, the broader contraction since October 2009, and in the accumulated of the first semester the fall was 1.86% per year.
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Regarding the previous month, shipments retreated 2.33% according to estate -adjusted figures.
Banxico reported in a statement that the fall of remittances in June were a reflection of decreases of 14.3% annual in the number of shipments, and 2.2% in the value of the average rough.
The number of remittances went from 14 million 825 in June 2024 to 12 million 705 last June, while the average spike fell from $ 419 to 409.
“This setback in an external financing channel represents a growing risk for private consumption, particularly in highly dependent regions of these flows,” said Valmex Casa de Bolsa in an analysis.
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This financial group explained that when adjusted by exchange and inflation rate, the remittances registered in June a real annual drop of 16.1%, which marked the first decrease in real terms since May 2024.
He added that the contraction was due to a combination of lower income in dollars and greater internal inflationary pressures, which have eroded the purchasing power of these flows of money.
“The real adjustment reinforces the signal of deterioration in the available income of receiving households, which could translate into a lower consumption capacity in the following months,” he said.
He pointed out that after years of sustained growth, remittance income begins to show a descending trend this year, marking a possible turning point after the historical maximum of 2024.
This change, said Valmex, suggests the termination of an expansive cycle that extended for more than a decade, and that had contributed significantly to the entry of currencies and consumption in regions of the country.
He said that the fall seems to the beginning of a longer adjustment stage, in which Mexican families could face lower support from abroad and anticipate a lower external impulse for the Mexican economy in the coming months, with more visible effects on entities with the greatest dependence on remittances.
They foresee the end of remittance growth streak
BBVA Mexico added in an analysis that since its recovery in 2014, the flow of remittances has registered an 11 consecutive growth streak, which will most likely come to an end in 2025.
He argued that the recent migratory actions and policies of the Donald Trump government only marginally affect the fall of remittances to the country, flows that have shown signs of uncertainty during the last 20 months, a trend that began to be observed since November 2023.
“That is, long before the current President Donald Trump listed as a candidate of the Republican party in the last presidential elections in the United States,” he said.
For BBVA, the fall in remittances during the first half of 2025 is mainly explained by a lower incorporation of new Mexican migrants into the US labor market.
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Particularly he said that in June 2024 the remittances grew 11.14% and registered their historical maximum with 6,207 MDD, so the base effect of comparison is one of the main factors that explain the fall of 12.13% in April and 16.20% in June.
Base Group attributed the weakness of remittances to a US labor market with strong cooling signals and a weak economic activity, which limits the growth of shipments.
He added that remittances have been greatly affected by the fear of the undocumented population to be deported, so undocumented people avoid going to work or perform other activities.
He pointed out that a factor that could counteract the deterioration of remittances in the remaining months of the year would be to increase the number of operations or their amount.
“However, this is unlikely in the context of the hardening of the United States immigration policy that discourages the search for employment and the arrival of new migrants, along with the strong deterioration of the United States labor market,” he anticipated.
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