For appearance sake, the retail sales report Wednesday should look solid as consumers are still spending money. The details, though, likely will tell a different story. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect March to show a healthy 1.2% seasonally adjusted gain from February, which registered just a 0.2% increase , held back by bar and restaurant receipts as well as lower gas station sales due to falling oil prices. The numbers are not adjusted for inflation. On the surface, that would seem to tell the story of stable demand despite multiple sentiment surveys showing consumer optimism waning amid tariff uncertainty and worries about economic growth. But the headline number will overstate true demand if the estimate is correct. Most Wall Street economists expect that tariff concerns caused a large pull-forward in demand for autos, a sector particularly vulnerable to President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Auto sales could rise as much as 11% as buyers look to get in under the tariff wire, said Troy Ludtka, senior U.S. economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “However, this is expected to be short lived as automobile demand was moved forward in advance of auto tariffs,” he said in a note. “Consequently, vehicle sales may be soft in the next few months.” Ludtka actually is above the Wall Street consensus, expecting a 1.6% gain for the headline number and just a 0.3% increase ex-auto sales, the latter forecast in line with the average. Goldman Sachs forecasts the so-called core reading, which excludes autos, gas and building materials, to come in at up 0.5%, “reflecting continued growth in measures of card spending and payback for the colder-than-usual weather of January and February.” With a light economic docket this week, surprises either way could be market moving. “The report will offer additional insight as to whether the awful confidence trends have worked their way into the hard data, because post-pandemic, they’ve gone in opposite directions, for the most part,” said Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. Torres expects the retail sales and industrial production data, both due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, “are likely to dominate the market narrative Wednesday.” Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
