The government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador did not establish the conditions for the administration of Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo to face a foreign trade scenario with Donald Trump as president of the United States, taking into account its inclination for protectionism, according to the coordinator of the Laboratory of Analysis in Commerce, Economy and Business (LACEN), Ignacio Martínez.
In addition, he considered that the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, and the Undersecretary of Foreign Trade, Luis Rosendo Gutiérrez, have “enormous inexperience” in trade, which could lead to economic problems for Mexico.
“We’ll see how they face the review of the USMCA. It is not only about reading or preparing, but about having experience,” he said in an interview with Forbes Mexico.
He added that five years ago, Donald Trump announced “what we will be seeing” starting in January 2025, and that the new federal administration in Mexico was not prepared with a strategy.
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Yesterday, the Secretary of Economy during the six-year term of Enrique Peña Nieto, Ildefonso Guajardo, commented that Ebrard must give certainty to Mexicans and businessmen about the USMCA.
“The challenges that the Ministry of Economy faces with Marcelo Ebrard in the face of Trump’s victory, without a doubt, is the review of the USMCA in 2026; “It must give certainty to the markets that it will continue in a favorable manner for the countries,” he told the media during an event held by Sura.
“And that this gives certainty and supports the performance of financial assets in Mexico,” he added.
He said that Mexico must maintain a firm stance against the Republican, and that the task will not be easy for Ebrard and Gutiérrez.
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In recent days, the conversation has focused on the North American trade agreement because the Republican said he would impose a 25% tariff on all Mexican products if Claudia Sheinbaum’s government does not fight “adequately” – according to his terms—to organized crime that affects both countries.
In addition, the virtual president has threatened a more restrictive trade policy, which could lead to a renegotiation of the USMCA in 2026, despite the fact that the treaty states that only one review should be carried out.
In this regard, Joaquín Barrera, director of Fixed Income and Investments at Sura Investments, pointed out that the text of the agreement indicates that it will be reviewed every six years, looking for what can be improved, added or eliminated.
“Renegotiating is opening everything, from a strategic point of view Donald Trump is going to want to approach it as a renegotiation, because that gives him the power to achieve progress on the immigration agenda, but the truth is that they must stick to the text. “We are going to a review, not a renegotiation,” he said.
On the other hand, Kenneth Smith Ramos, former head of the technical negotiation of the USMCA, told the media outlet Milenio yesterday that if Donald Trump establishes tariffs it would be a violation of the treaty.
He explained that unless the United States conducts an investigation into trade practices, its government cannot implement barriers to Mexican products without a serious argument.
“That would be a violation of the treaty and action needs to be taken quickly, whether in terms of tariff retaliation or bringing the United States into a dispute resolution process within the treaty,” Smith said.
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However, he noted that Trump’s threats represent the return of a style of government that corresponds to the policies he already implemented in 2018, during his first term in the United States.
Mexico is the most important trading partner for the United States, since the trade war that the Republicans started against China ended up benefiting Mexican goods.
The experts agreed that we must wait for the Trump government to begin, in January 2025, to learn more about the New York magnate’s intentions.
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