Rising odds Trump moves on Panama Canal, Greenland

Prediction market traders ramped up bets that more international shakeups may lie ahead in the wake of President Donald Trump’s raid on Venezuela.

Traders on the burgeoning platforms have recently committed money based on where the White House might turn its focus next. The amped up bets come as Wall Street and Main Street note the Trump administration’s shift toward quick and forceful international strikes.

“The big takeaway for investors is Trump is growing much more comfortable with, and confident in, the use of military force,” Piper Sandler analyst Andy Laperriere wrote to clients on Monday. “His first year in his second term was characterized by boundless energy and risk-taking, and that has been extended to the use of the military.”

Odds that Trump will “take back” the Panama Canal before early 2029 on the Kalshi prediction market jumped above 35%, from less than 30% late last week. Trump said last year that he wouldn’t rule out using military force to gain control of the maritime route linking the Pacific to the Atlantic.

The likelihood that the U.S. will “take control” of Greenland rose to 38% midday Tuesday — an increase of roughly eight percentage points since the middle of last week. At one point over the weekend, the odds shot above 46%.

A larger market, based on the dollar amount of wagering, that Trump will “buy at least part” of the Danish territory, hovered near 25% odds, up from less than 20% seen late last week.

Combined betting on both questions on Kalshi amounts to close to $2.5 million.

Leaders in Greenland have repeatedly rejected Trump’s comments that the U.S. aims for a takeover. But Trump reiterated his calls to take the European possession in an interview in The Atlantic published this weekend.

“We do need Greenland, absolutely,” Trump told the magazine.

Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at consultancy Eurasia Group, said the Danish government was in “full crisis mode” following Trump’s latest comments.

On Polymarket, new markets worth tens of thousands of dollars each have sprouted up in recent days around a potential strike on Colombia and invasion of Cuba. Trump has leveled threats at both countries.

Kalshi betters began predicting this weekend that Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, would leave office before next year. The chance of this, part of nearly a $1 million market, now trades around 54%.

Trump authorized bombing attacks on Iran last year, bringing the U.S. into the conflict between the Islamic republic and Israel. Last week, Trump threatened to “knock the hell” out of Iran if it rebuilt its nuclear program.

“Now, I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are we’re going to have to knock them down. We’ll knock them down,” Trump said. “We’ll knock the hell out of them. But hopefully that’s not happening.”