Analysts were standing to the sidelines following Rivian Automotive’s latest quarterly results , as they see a tough growth path ahead for the automaker. Rivian shed more than 4% in the premarket Friday after it forecast lower deliveries in 2025. For the year, the company anticipates deliveries between 46,000 units and 51,000 units, lower than the 51,579 vehicles it delivered in 2024. That overshadowed Rivian reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter numbers. The company posted a loss of 46 cents per share on revenue of $1.73 billion for the period, while analysts surveyed by LSEG had penciled in a loss of 65 cents per share on $1.4 billion in revenue. Following these results, Cantor downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight but upped its price target by $2 to $15, implying 10.2% upside from Thursday’s close. While the firm’s analysts were encouraged by its fourth-quarter results, they said they were discouraged by its 2025 delivery guidance. “We are also becoming more conservative in the near term, driven by lower delivery expectations and due to macro conditions including the implementation of incremental tariffs and the likely removal of the $7,500 EV Tax Credit,” the firm’s analysts wrote in a Friday note to clients. Other analysts, however, reiterated their current ratings, many of which were neutral or underperform-equivalent. Below is what those analysts had to say. Barclays rates Rivian equal weight, keeps price target at $14 The firm’s $14 price target reflects nearly 3% upside from Thursday’s close. “We believe 4Q results reflect a key step forward for RIVN, with improvements on vehicle cost, the emergence of a new revenue/profit stream (used car sales), and a sharp beat on FCF. Yet 2025 remains a key test for RIVN on execution.” Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral rating on Rivian, reiterates $14 target Its price target implies almost 3% upside ahead. “While we see positive signs for the long-term, Rivian is operating in a difficult industry backdrop for EVs (including potential headwinds from a policy perspective for EV demand and credits) and guided for lower yoy vehicle shipments in 2025. In addition, we believe it will be important to monitor if there is a change in Rivian’s ability to capture regulatory credit revenue longer-term, which the company expects to be about flat yoy in 2025 at $300 mn. Finally, we see a long path to positive FCF.” Jefferies rates Rivian as a buy, keeps price target of $17 Along with its bullish stance, its $17 price target reflects about 25% upside potential. “Rivian provided a downbeat demand outlook (midpoint -5%) that, to some degree, takes into account unfolding risks from shifting auto policy. Against that, Q4 results and guidance for 2025 continue to show improvement in costs and emerging software revenue (c.$1bn FY 25 and +ve contribution), though it’s still too tentative to frame a valuation for software.” Baird reiterates its neutral rating on Rivian, maintains $16 price target The firm has a $16 price target on the stock, which reflects more than 17% upside from here. “We speculate that bears may pick on this as regulatory credits were a material contributor; however, we note that management discussed this throughout 2024 as a source of revenue. Both autonomy and software & services were areas of increased interest on the call which we believe may become more prominent with the R2 launch still roughly a year away. We remain cautious near term given broad EV headwinds.” Bernstein rates Rivian underperform with price target of $6.10 Its $6.10 price target implies more than 55% downside ahead for the stock. “In our view guidance for 2025 is roughly in line with expectations, but the policy uncertainty surrounding future regulatory credit sales, and disbursement of the DOE loan puts Rivian in a delicate position.” Deutsche Bank keeps its hold rating on Rivian, raises price target to $14 The firm upped its price target to $14 from $12, reflecting nearly 3% upside from Thursday’s close. “While the core business continues to cut cost, we highlight that the partnership with VW remains key to Rivian’s ability to ramp up its next-gen platform starting in 2026. At the same time, we worry about the macro and policy environment as the consumer tax incentive could be eliminated under the new administration which could dampen demand and hurt operating leverage. To us, it is unclear how much Rivian is assuming from policy and tariff impacts.” Cantor Fitzgerald downgrades Rivian to neutral from overweight but raises price target to $15 from $13 “We continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a differentiated product offering, a material commercial partnership with Amazon, and a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen. We are encouraged by the company’s first positive gross profit, albeit this was driven primarily by the sale of regulatory credits. However, we are discouraged by the company’s FY25 delivery guidance, which is lower than FY24 deliveries, and we expect fewer EDV deliveries in FY25.”
