As the 44th Vice President of the United States, Dan Quayle made dozens of diplomatic trips, many aimed at helping to shape the post-Cold War Soviet Union. As a voter, Quayle has cast his ballot for Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections. But when you put those two things together, the current view from the former V.P. comes to a pessimistic conclusion about the current posture in U.S.-Russia relations and the war in Ukraine.
“We are not approaching the end,” Quayle, who is now chairman of Cerberus Global Investments, said at the CNBC CEO Council Summit in Arizona on Tuesday. “Putin has no desire to see this come to a conclusion until he really dismantles Ukraine,” he said.
While Quayle is clear on Putin’s thinking, it is Trump’s strategy that mystifies him. “I do not understand Trump’s affinity for Putin and why he has not demanded anything here,” he said. “All he wants to do as president is deals … So, if you’re a dealmaker, what do you need? Leverage. What leverage is he trying to put on Putin? Zero. Absolutely zero,” Quayle said.
Over the weekend, Trump had posted on Truth Social ahead of talks with Russian and Ukrainian leaders, “HOPEFULLY IT WILL BE A PRODUCTIVE DAY, A CEASEFIRE WILL TAKE PLACE, AND THIS VERY VIOLENT WAR, A WAR THAT SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED, WILL END,” in his customary all-capitalized comments.
On Monday, after an over two-hour call between Trump and Putin, the president said he wanted the “bloodbath” to end, but there was little sign of a breakthrough, even as Trump said Russia and Ukraine would hold direct talks on a ceasefire “immediately,” on his social media platform. He also spoke to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday.
“Putin says he won’t agree to a ceasefire, he just wants to talk, Trump says OK,” Quayle told CNBC’s Sara Eisen in an interview at the CEO Summit. He said the lack of pressure also undermines a U.S. policy alliance with the European Union, that if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire there would be secondary sanctions. “Putin said let’s talk, and Trump says yes, and European leaders just had the rug pulled out from under them,” Quayle said. “I don’t think it will end any time soon,” he added.
Quayle’s view of the Russian playbook is that all along it’s been to “dismantle Ukraine, and time is on his side.”
And even though Putin has not been as successful as he would have liked on the battlefield, “he’s been very successful with Trump,” Quayle said, adding that Putin’s KGB background makes him and his circle well placed to know Trump’s “weakness and vulnerability and how to deal with him.”
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting at the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019.
Kevin Lamarque | Reuters
While Quayle does not believe Trump can unilaterally “wash his hands” of the conflict when he finally realizes Putin has no interest in a ceasefire — “Congress has something to say about that and there is still bipartisan support for Ukraine,” he said — Quayle says the president has blown an opportunity to apply pressure in three ways that would work to change Putin’s approach.
To end the war, the U.S. needs “lots of money in Swiss banks that are Russian given to Ukraine.
Second, the U.S. needs to give Ukraine even more weapons.
Third, there needs to be secondary sanctions on Russia.
“Suddenly, Putin would come to the table if you do those three things,” Quayle said. “He comes to the table tomorrow.”
But Quayle does not think this will happen. “It’s not what he believes, he doesn’t want to do anything substantial to bring pressure or leverage on Putin,” he said.
The strategy on Russia leaves Quayle perplexed. “I don’t have an answer,” he said.
While he noted that Trump is fond of saying it’s “Biden’s war,” he believes there will be political repercussions for the president’s already weakened popularity if Trump lets Ukraine fall. “You inherited this war, but it is on your watch, and if he completely walks away from Ukraine, which I don’t think he will, but he might, there will be a significant political price.”
“American people do not like war, but they do not like losing wars, and if he is viewed as the loser on this, there will be a price to pay, so he needs to figure it out,” Quayle said.
“He wants peace. He doesn’t like war, but then he is so one-sided, and that is a problem,” he aded.
While Trump warned Zelenskyy that he was risking World War III in the infamous Oval Office meeting, Quayle says the bigger risk is the current Trump strategy: “You really want to talk about who is risking [WWIII]? Just let Russia gobble up Ukraine, and then Poland, and then the Balkans, and then you are going to be talking about World War III.”
