Film

Sinners’ Path To Winning Best Picture Is The Same As Two Polar Opposite Former Winners

2 March 2026

Don’t put a stake in the heart of Sinners‘ chances to win Best Picture just yet. For most of the season, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has steamrolled the competition to position itself as the favorite to win the top category at the 98th Academy Awards. But Ryan Coogler’s vampire movie has kept pushing forward and had a breakthrough this weekend.

After losing to One Battle After Another in pretty much every head-to-head competition this awards season, Sinners won Best Cast at the Actor Awards (formerly known as SAG). Michael B. Jordan also surprised with a Best Actor win. This all came after the movie was widely recognized at the NAACP Image Awards and won an ACE Eddie Award for its editing.

One Battle After Another should still be considered the favorite to win Best Picture; it has won at the Golden Globes, DGA, Critics’ Choice Awards, BAFTA, and (as of this weekend) PGA. It has a package that historically leads to the biggest Oscar, which is why it sits atop my predicted Best Picture winners list.

But thanks to Sinners’ strong showing over the last few days, hope remains. The movie can look at two previous Best Picture winners to see its path to victory.

Sinners Will Enter Oscars Night With The Same Precursor Package As Parasite & Crash

Ki-kung and Ki-woo on their phones in Parasite

The SAG and ACE wins are not expected to be Sinners‘ only major precursor accomplishments before the Oscars ceremony takes place on March 15. It is nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the WGA Awards, where it’s competing against Black Bag, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Marty Supreme, and Weapons.

It’s widely expected that Sinners will have a WGA win under its belt come Oscars night. Marty Supreme is the only other Oscar-nominated script in that category, so Coogler’s screenplay is sure to be celebrated during the ceremony on March 8.

Sinners‘ projected package of SAG, ACE, and WGA does have historical precedence as being strong enough to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Crash won with those same wins in 2006, and Parasite did the same in 2020. They both won the Drama category at ACE and Original Screenplay at WGA, which are the same categories Sinners gained recognition in.

As long as these three precursors have been around (since 1999), no movie has ever lost Best Picture after winning SAG, ACE, and WGA. In addition to Crash and Parasite, the films that have won those four awards are Slumdog Millionaire, Argo, and Everything Everywhere All At Once.

But Slumdog Millionaire, Argo, and Everything Everywhere All At Once won beyond just these three and entered their respective Oscar nights as major frontrunners; they had the most precursor wins among the nominees. Crash and Parasite didn’t, as they trailed the presumed Best Picture favorites.

Parasite & Crash Prove Sinners Can Still Beat One Battle After Another

By looking at those two films, it’s clear One Battle After Another does not have this award in the bag. Just ask the teams behind Brokeback Mountain and 1917.

Brokeback Mountain entered the 2006 Oscars in prime position to win Best Picture. It had won at the Globes (Drama), PGA, DGA, WGA (Adapted), CCA, and BAFTA. But Crash beat it head-to-head at SAG and ACE, and then took home the Academy Award.

While Crash‘s win came before the Oscars started using the preferential ballot, expanded the category to have 10 nominees, and diversified the voting body, it is evidence of Sinners‘ package being strong enough to overcome a movie (One Battle After Another) that has been more dominant in awards season.

1917 was not as heavy a favorite to win Best Picture, but it still entered the night with the most precursor wins thanks to Globes (Drama), PGA, DGA, and BAFTA. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Jojo Rabbit both lurked as contenders with two fewer wins. And while Parasite won at SAG, WGA, and ACE, it only directly beat 1917 at WGA.

Yet, Parasite is representative of how the Oscars could also favor Sinners. Both movies are real genre crowdpleasers with great support behind them, especially within the communities they shine a spotlight on. The appreciation for both could be felt through precursor awards shows by how attendees reacted to wins.

And the Oscar voters have already told us just how much they adore Coogler’s movie. Sinners‘ record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations weren’t a fluke. That only happens when people in all aspects of the industry are impressed by a film, respect what it does, and want to honor its accomplishments.

If Crash can beat Brokeback Mountain in one of the Oscars’ most divisive results and Parasite can beat 1917 for one of the most celebrated wins, there’s no reason to shut the door on Sinners beating One Battle After Another and receiving similar praise as the latter. Whether that ultimately happens or not remains to be seen, but the Best Picture race is still very much alive. And while there will only be one winner, both films are more than deserving of the award.