The stock market has had a choppy first two months of 2025, but history suggests Wall Street could get a seasonal reprieve as the calendar turns to March. Over the past 20 years, March has been a stronger month than January and February on average, according to S & P 500 return data from FactSet. March also outperforms February over a 10-year time horizon, and the two months are nearly even over a 15-year period. The S & P 500 fell 1.4% in February, erasing most of its gains year to date. .SPX 1M mountain The S & P 500 has lost ground in February. However, March is not as strong as some of the best months, including April, July and November. The U.S. election being close in the rearview mirror is another reason to not get too optimistic, Christopher Mistal, director of research at Stock Trader’s Almanac, said in a note. “Usually a solid performing month, March has tended to be softer in post-election years as it is the last month of the historically weak Q1,” Mistal said. Additionally, the Nasdaq tends to underperform the S & P 500 during the postelection March periods, he added. The postelection year also tends to have a different trading pattern throughout the month of March. “In the recent 21-year period, March has tended to open softly but then suffer weakness through mid-month before rallying to its finish. Post-election year Marchs tend to open well and exhibit strength until just after mid-month before struggling to close out the month,” Mistal said. There are plenty of potential market-moving events on deck for March as well. The latest nonfarm payrolls report is due out on March 7, and Federal Reserve officials are set to meet on March 18-19 to discuss potential interest rate changes. That central bank meeting will also produce updated projections on the path of the economy and inflation.
