The fall in reasons from remittances of Mexicans based in the United States will not cause a macroeconomic problem or an imbalance for the balance of payments in Mexico, estimated Carlos Serrano Herrera, chief economist of BBVA Mexico.
“We do not expect a collapse too large from remittances, since 5.8 percent will fall and close the year at 61 billion dollars,” he said in the presentation of the Remittance and Migration Yearbook 2025.
A lower flow of dollars sent by Mexicans based in the United States “will not represent a macroeconomic problem or an imbalance for the balance of payments,” he said.
To the first semester of 2025, the remittances have fallen 5.6 percent and “we have heard many voices of some analysts and commentators that indicate to the fall of remittances by the raids of Donald Trump”
“We do not believe that it is necessarily the case, because if the only country where remittances are falling, it is Mexico, if they were the raids, if it were the fear of Donald Trump, because we would be seeing this in other countries,” he explained.
He recalled that remittances are no longer going up because the population has been stagnant for a long time in 12 million inhabitants, while the citizens of Central America continue to grow and there is more migration
“In Mexico we have been a while when net migration is close to zero, therefore we cannot expect remittances to continue growing,” he said.
The exchange rate plays an important role in the fall of remittances, which “we have seen throughout the years that Mexicans send more remittances, when the peso is strong and the weak dollar.”
In Guatemala, 18.1 percent revenue from remittances increased, in El Salvador there was an increase of 17.9 percent of money shipments, Honduras had an increase of 25.3 percent, as well as the Dominican Republic registers an increase of 11.2 percent and in Colombia they advanced 11 percent, he said.
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