MIAMI BEACH, FL. — Point72’s Steve Cohen believes the bull market could see a tougher ride in the second half of 2025 as President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and immigration policies may slow down economic growth. “The irony is, and this is interesting, that … if he implements tariffs, specifically tariffs and immigration, it will actually slow growth, not increase growth, in 2025,” Cohen said at iConnections Global Alts conference Tuesday. The prominent hedge fund investor, who also owns the New York Mets, said tariffs would stoke inflationary pressures and hinder consumer spending, while an immigration crackdown could slow the supply of workers and cause the employment rate to go down. Cohen believes these negative effects could offset or even erase the benefits from tax cuts and deregulation. “I don’t think that’s a great backdrop in 2025,” Cohen said. “I would expect the markets to top over the next couple months, if it hasn’t already topped already, and I would expect the second half to be a little tougher.” Despite his cautious view on the overall market near term, Cohen remains optimistic about investing around artificial intelligence in the decades ahead. Cohen expects inflation to stay sticky around the 2.6% level, and he sees the U.S. economy growing at 1.5% in the second half of 2025, slower than the 2.5% expected growth in the first half of the year. “The second half, we actually think things are going to slow,” Cohen said. “We think the employment rate will go down because the flow of immigration, supply of labor is being constrained, and so we think it’s going to be hard for the Fed to hit their inflation target.” The S & P 500 just scored a second consecutive annual gain above 20%, spurred by confidence over lower interest rates, economic strength and profits from artificial intelligence. The equity benchmark is up 3% year to date.
