Mexico City, (Reuters) .- General inflation in Mexico probably slowed in June after four consecutive months of increases; However, the underlying inflation is expected to have continued its progress, which reinforces the expectations that Banco de México could opt for a more cautious pace in its upcoming trimming of interest rates, according to a Reuters survey published on Tuesday.
According to the survey, the median of the projections of 17 analysts placed the annual general inflation by 4.31%, a slight decline compared to 4.42% registered in May.
Although it represents a slowdown, the figure remains above the objective of the central bank of 3% plus/less a percentage point.
In contrast, it is estimated that the underlying inflation, an indicator that excludes the most volatile prices and is key to evaluating inflationary substance pressures, would reach 4.22%, its highest level since April 2023.
Lee: Inflation is moderated in Mexico in the first half of June
Regarding the previous month, the consensus points to an increase of 0.27% in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) and 0.38% in the underlying index. The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) will publish the official data this Wednesday.
At the end of June, Banco de México cut its key interest rate in 50 base points, continuing with the monetary relaxation cycle started this year after maintaining the rate at record levels. However, the Central Bank adjusted its position in the most recent statement, omitting explicit mentions to additional 50 -base cuts and pointing out that it will evaluate “additional adjustments” based on the evolution of inflation.
The markets interpreted this change as a sign of moderation in the rhythm of monetary policy. In fact, a CITI survey published this week revealed that most analysts expect a 25 -base cutting cut at the next meeting of the Central Bank, scheduled for August 7.
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