Ten years ago, after announcing the iPhone 6, Tim Cook had something else to show the world. Cue the first ever sizzle reel for the Apple Watch.
That video is fun to watch now, especially when you zero in on the features that Apple claims will revolutionize the smartwatch category. There was the Digital Crown — a so-called breakthrough in input technology that let you scroll and zoom on what was essentially a mini wrist computer. It has a Taptic Engine that will secretly buzz when a text or notification comes in. Glimpses should be digestible information, a kind of status update for your apps. Also, remember Digital Touch? That weird feature where you tap two fingers on the screen and send a friend an animation of your heartbeat?
Let’s not forget the 18K gold, $10,000 Apple Watch Edition.
Fast forward a decade, and the sizzle reels for the Apple Watch are completely different. Now, they’re full of people sharing stories about how the Apple Watch saved their lives. Every year, most of the new features focus on new ways to close your rings. Regardless of what you think of the Apple Watch, it is now the most popular smartwatch in the world and has been for a long time. As of 2020, it has outsold the entire Swiss watch industry. It was an undeniable success. But in 10 years, where will the Apple Watch be next?
The first Apple Watch arrived during the golden age of the fitness tracker. Fitbits and devices like the Jawbone Up reign supreme with their long battery life and simplicity. Smartwatches are pretty boring. Pebble was beloved for its simplicity among gadget nerds, but the company never achieved mainstream appeal. Google was on the Android Wear scene in 2014, but as a platform it was plagued by laggy interfaces, questionable tracking accuracy, massive form factors, and battery life. Samsung had some options with its Tizen OS, but it struggled with many of the same issues. So did the first Apple Watch. For most people, a smartwatch is an overpriced device that can’t replace a fitness tracker or your smartphone. So, what’s the point in buying one?
No one has a good answer, including Apple (which is probably why most of the Apple Watch’s early marketing focused on fashion, of all things). And it won’t begin to figure out the answer until 2017.
That’s when Apple added LTE with the Series 3. Suddenly the Apple Watch isn’t tethered to your phone. You can still call for help in an emergency. I remember calling my roommate to give myself the illusion of safety while walking crazy. Safety is a compelling argument, though it’s still plagued by lagging performance. It certainly didn’t help that making that call completely drained the battery life in just 30 minutes. After I reviewed the Series 3, I went back to my Fitbit Alta HR — but my perception of the device as an unnecessary luxury changed.
And then the real industrywide game changer came in 2018 with the Series 4. Now the Apple Watch has FDA-cleared EKGs that can detect atrial fibrillation. It can detect when you are struggling and get help for you. Furthermore, you can be alerted if your heart rate is abnormally high. Your phone can’t do that. Suddenly, the Apple Watch isn’t a fancy toy that, at best, helps triage notifications. It can save lives. And it did.
Turns out, health will drive the average person to buy a smartwatch. Anecdotally, this is the number one reason friends and family ask me about smartwatches. I’d get texts from people worried about their parents’ health or, as we got older, concerned friends following a less-than-stellar doctor’s visit. This is also why I made the switch myself. This is why it is so hard to find anyone who makes fitness bands.
The only problem is that tech moves fast. Health is notoriously slow.
The Apple Watch has gotten more smart updates than I can count. So much so that the Series 9, Ultra 2, and second-gen SE are very different devices than the original watch. (I, for one, was a big fan of last year’s double tap gesture.) But even the most ardent Apple Watch fans can’t deny the updates feel more iterative with each pass. of the year. Aside from the introduction of the Ultra in 2022, there hasn’t been an industry-shattering update since the Series 4.
Not for lack of trying. There have been several rumors that Apple is working on features like high blood pressure and sleep apnea detection, and the holy grail of all health tech, noninvasive blood glucose monitoring. But the raison d’être that catapulted the smartwatch — the fact that it could save lives — is the very thing that keeps it in limbo. If people believe this tech can save lives, it has to pass a higher regulatory bar than any consumer gadget.
Even the most ardent Apple Watch fans can’t deny the updates that feel more iterative with each passing year.
This is a good thing! FDA clearance is there to protect consumers and ensure there are guardrails. But that means Apple is pretty much stuck. For better or worse, this has set consumer expectations very high in this space. However, advanced health features require companies to walk a fine line between regulatory clearance, accuracy, and patents. All this requires an incredible amount of resources and time. (You have to look no further than Apple’s legal battle with medical device maker Masimo over blood oxygen tech to see why Samsung beat Apple to an FDA-cleared sleep apnea feature.)
In essence, the Apple Watch is kind of where the iPhone was a few years ago – solid, but minor updates with a vague sense that something big could be around the corner. . But where generative AI has breathed new life into smartphones, no one has yet figured out how best to put it into a smartwatch. Based on what we saw at WWDC, Apple Intelligence isn’t headed to the Watch anytime soon, either. So, where will the Apple Watch leave in the next decade?
There’s always the chance that Apple will pull an industry-leading health feature out of thin air. Just a few days ago, Bloomberg and 9to5Mac both reported that long-delayed feature sleep apnea may appear. But without health, Apple will have to go the more traditional route. Bigger screens. Better battery life. Upgraded sensors. More in-depth fitness features to compete with the likes of Garmin, Polar, and Suunto. More ways to integrate with other Apple devices. New, non-healthy ways to improve your life. Apple is in a tough spot, but in EKG’s case, it’s worth the wait. The next time Tim Cook takes the stage may not be to show off the technology that saves your life, but give it time.
