The first months of the Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, at the juncture from the trump It could be seen over the years as an example of how to transform a crisis into a window of opportunity. In November last year, after the victory of Donald Trump for the second time, not a few pointed out that the Mexican economy would be the most affected, given its level of dependence and integration with that of the neighboring northern country.
His campaign promises threatened it as, for example, executing the largest mass deportation program in the history of the United States, imposing tariffs of up to 100 percent to Mexico for not stopping the passage of criminals and drugs, or improving their military forces against drug cartels in Mexican territory.
There were even few who speculated that the fact that Sheinbaum was a woman would be a background disadvantage before Trump, well known for his misogyny.
What we have seen since November of last year has been a succession of tariff threats by the US president to obtain concessions of different kinds, who seem to be redefining the global commercial rules.
In honor of the truth we must remember that Sheinbaum started his mandate three months before Trump and since then sent samples of a new security strategy, a focused on greater intelligence and coordination between levels of government. In the same tenor, one day after completing 100 days of government and a week of the change of power in Washington, the president presented the Mexico Plan, an ambitious strategy “of equitable and sustainable economic development for shared prosperity.”
In one of the presidential debates, the then opposition candidate, Xóchitl Gálvez judged Sheinbaum as “ice lady” and “heartless”, which would be seen by people as qualifications of the macho culture that prevails in Mexico. Ironically, today those apparent disadvantages have been shown as solid virtues of a president who has had to face a character who dictates the themes and times of the world agenda.
Who would say that the biggest test to the second floor of the fourth transformation would emanate from international factors. Specifically of the northern neighbor and its president Donald Trump who, in his second term, is more comfortable in power, more experienced and less politically constrained. A potentially dangerous formula that we still do not know how far it will arrive on all fronts, the economic, the climatic, the energy, the military and, equally important, what will be the reaction of the rest of the world, as is the plan to rearme announced by Europe, for pointing out an example.
The last great achievement of the Mexican president has been to agree with Donald Trump to leave tariffs on tariffs on Mexican origin that meet the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC), which will be valid until April 2, when the United States announces reciprocal tariffs for all countries.
In the medium term we do not know the level of risk of destabilization of the US economy, how much companies will open companies in the United States, the longed for American president’s dream, and how so much tariffs will help pay the national debt of the northern neighboring country.
If we know something today, Trump will continue to threaten more executive orders, more tariffs and more bizarre measures because that is his method to achieve results. On the part of the Mexican government, the turn in the security strategy against drug trafficking with respect to the past government is increasingly clear, while the Mexican president shows, once again, its effectiveness to avoid a crisis.
About the author:
Palmira Tapia is a teacher in public policies from the University of Oxford and a degree in Political Science and International Relations, by the Economic Research and Teaching Center (CIDE).
Twitter: @palmiratapia
The opinions expressed are only the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and the editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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