After nine years, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party and as Prime Minister of Canada, in a challenging national and regional context. Donald Trump’s humiliating comments describe the culmination of his decision, and with it, the end of an era of chiaroscuro, amid pressure and harsh criticism for him to leave office.
In the heat of the news, a resounding defeat of Trudeau’s party in favor of the Conservative Party, with the leadership of Pierre Poilievre, seems highly probable, as reported by various polls that give him a very wide margin of advantage.
Canada is a parliamentary democracy with a first-past-the-post system known as first-past-the-postthat is, the candidate with the highest number of votes in each electoral district manages to win a place in Parliament. Thus, it is not necessary for a party to win a national majority of votes. The latter causes stable parliamentary majorities and a certain simplicity in counting votes, but also a clear disproportion between the number of votes and seats, which favors a two-party system to the detriment of small parties.
In 2025, federal elections are scheduled in Canada to renew the House of Commons, and in 2021 and 2024 there were also elections in various provinces in which the Conservatives achieved significant majorities. Based on various surveys and the nature of the Canadian electoral system, which privileges the majorities achieved in each district, it seems that the path is set for the Conservative Party to achieve the majority of seats in Parliament.
In 2015, when Trudeau came to power, his liberal agenda was welcomed after a decade of Conservative Party rule. But today, reality has changed and the incentives are in place for the public to support a conservative agenda of which some of its bets have already been revealed. One of them falls in the field of trade policy, specifically its position regarding the Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC).
In recent months, Justin Trudeau declared his position in favor of Mexico continuing to be part of the trilateral trade agreement, while at the same time slipping his reservations regarding the measures taken by the Mexican government with respect to China, amid belligerent statements from the leaders from provinces like Ontario or Alberta to our country.
For now, Canadian national and foreign policy will be marked by the elections, so the only serious limitation for this party to moderate its position, at least in political discourse, comes from independent voters and a good part of those who supported to the Liberal Party. However, these voters are disenchanted with the high debt, inflation, and unemployment that the Canadian economy is experiencing.
In a possible scenario in which the review of the USMCA in 2026 is carried out by the Conservative Party, we could expect a favorable position on free trade and economic integration with the United States, as has traditionally been its approach, which could help the ideological affinity with Donald Trump.
The Mexican president spoke about Trudeau’s departure and why this does not affect the maintenance of the trilateral agreement, pointing out that it is the best way to compete against China and Asia. The ability to negotiate from this argument will be key for Mexico, in the face of complicated leaderships such as Trump and probably Poilievre.
Beyond strident verbiage, North America’s greatest advantage continues to be its commercial and economic integration, instead of individual strategies, in the face of the tensions that the relationship with China entails, but also in growth opportunities such as the relocation of plants or nearshoring.
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Palmira Tapia has a Master’s degree in Public Policy from the University of Oxford and a degree in Political Science and International Relations from the Center for Economic Research and Teaching (CIDE).
Twitter: @palmiratapia
The opinions expressed are solely the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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