The Mexican dependence on American natural gas, origin of 70% of its imports, will increase in the midst of the commercial tensions unleashed after the arrival of President Donald Trump to the White House, an analysis of the Fitch Ratins qualifying agency warned Thursday.
In the document, Fitch anticipated that American natural gas imports will be driven by a growing energy demand, limited internal production and the expansion of gas pipeline infrastructure.
Although he stated that American gas imports “provide a reliable and profitable energy source for Mexico,” he also said that “they expose the country to the volatility of the exchange rate and supply interruptions.”
“Fitch expects the gas market share transported by the US in Mexico to increase in the coming years, as new duct infrastructure projects and greater use of existing capacity allow more US gas imports to satisfy the growing demand for additions to the capacity to generate energy and new projects, ”said the report.
The analysis also emphasizes that since January 20, when Donald Trump returned to the White House, “uncertainty about the state of bilateral relations has increased.”
“For now, the Trump administration has focused mainly on Mexico’s exports to the United States, and Fitch considers that the disturbances of the gas -driven gas trade are a lower risk,” he said.
However, the qualifying agency explained that an “abrupt increase” in imported gas prices would be “negative” for the state Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), as it estimated that “it will have to absorb the initial increase” of the costs for the costs for the Mexican government, which subsidizes agricultural and residential users of low consumption.
He also foresaw risks to industrial and commercial consumers, which he warned, “will end up paying higher prices.”
“A more permanent interruption could also derail the new -construction natural gas infrastructure economy,” Fitch added.
At this point Fitch considered that the new combined cycle plants in the country will underpin the growth of the demand for natural gas in the coming years and highlighted energy generation projects of this technology in the Yucatan Peninsula, in the Mexican southeast, so such as the development of gas pipelines, such as the southeast, which combines terrestrial and underwater sections with an extension of 715 kilometers.
Natural gas represents more than 60% of the generation of electricity in Mexico, and more than 70% of the Natural Gas consumption of Mexico is imported from the US, while the state Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex), the main state -owned national producer of oil and Gas de México with 95% of the total, has continuously breached its production objectives and has seen its production since 2010.
The strategic proximity of Mexico and the connectivity of its infrastructure with the US facilitates the efficient flow of natural gas through approximately 19,000 kilometers of pipelines with a total transport capacity of around 6.5 million cubic feet per day.
With EFE information.
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