The United States Federal Reserve is an atypical case among the central banks of the developed markets, since it seems willing to resume rates cuts just when many of its peers are reaching the end of their flexibility cycles.
The European Central Bank (ECB) left the rates without changes on Thursday, while Japan is expected to rise them before the end of the year. Next, the position of the 10 main central banks in the world:
Swiss
The Swiss National Bank meets on September 25. After reducing its 0% key rate in June, investors wonder if there will be a return to negative territory. President Martin Schlegel said this week that the bar is high, but ruled out such a measure. Since inflation is maintained above the lower limit of the BNS target (0-2%) in August, operators do not anticipate negative rates at the moment.
Canada
A weakened economy by US tariffs, unemployment at its highest level in four years and lower inflation press the Canada Bank to resume feat cuts next week.
The Bank of Canada has cut the types at 225 basic points since June 2024, but have been stable since March. The markets foresee approximately two cuts more than 25 basic points for January.
Sweden
The Riksbank of Sweden has also substantially reduced the types, despite the rigidity of the underlying inflation, but it seems that it will keep them unchanged on September 23. His vice governor indicated that the latest figures show that growth and inflation advance in the right direction.
New Zealand
The winds against internal and global growth could pave the way for the New Zealand Reserve Bank to cut the rates in October and possibly once again towards the end of the year, according to a survey with economists.
The RBNZ reduced its policy rate at 25 basic points, at a minimum of three years of 3% last month.
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Euro area
The ECB maintained its key rate in 2% on Thursday and projects an inflation of 1.9% in 2027, below the 2% target. The markets consider a rate cut possible, placing the chances of this happening in mid -2026 around 50%.
The ECB reduced its rate in half to 2% in June, but since then it has maintained it, pointing out that the euro zone economy is in a “good place”.
USA
The Fed seems willing to cut the rates at 25 basic points next week, after having kept them stable throughout the year for concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs.
The weakening of employment data suggests that a cut is already discounted, and some banks do not rule out a cut greater than 50 basic points. In total, almost 70 basic cut points have been discounted by the end of the year.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged the Federal Reserve to cut the rates. Investors also remain attentive to the future of Governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump tried to say goodbye; A federal judge temporarily blocked this measure on Tuesday.
Great Britain
The Bank of England will meet next Thursday, and operators do not foresee changes in loans or new flexibility this year.
Analysts have postponed expectations of additional cuts, citing persistent inflation, the highest among advanced G7 economies. The Bank of England cut the rates at 25 basic points in August, its fifth adjustment in this cycle.
Australia
The Bank of the Australian Reserve has cut the rates at 75 basic points since February. However, the solid GDP data of the second quarter have reduced market bets for wholesale flexibility.
An additional 25 basic points is expected this year and another at the beginning of 2026.
Norway
The Bank of Norway has only cut the types at 25 basic points in this cycle. The markets foresee another cut this year, probably next week, although Wednesday’s underlying inflation data generates doubts about this possibility.
Japan
The Bank of Japan, the only important central bank in the setting phase, faces complications after the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ihiba. Uncertainty almost certainly will keep the fees next week, making an increase in October, although it could still be completed before the end of the year.
Attention is also expected on whether the Bank of Japan will reduce its purchases of government bonds in the very long term.
With Reuters information
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