Filling the country’s rooftops with solar panels would cost the economy more than NIS 1.1 billion annually, compared to using very large solar fields in the Negev, according to a cost-effectiveness report by the National Economic Council, led by Professor Avi Simho. Solar field projects that “Globus” can reveal for the first time.
Research by David Bedell and Itamar Milrad found that while the marginal cost to the economy of generating electricity using natural gas (net of taxes) is NIS 0.07 per kilowatt-hour, additional electricity generation using solar panels with current technology is 0. It is between 12 manats. NIS 0.48 per kilowatt-hour on large fields and house roofs in the Negev.
In the report’s opening remarks, Prof. Simhon notes that incremental costs for renewable energy currently stand at around 2.5 billion NIS per year, while meeting the target of 30% renewable energy production by 2030 is the incremental cost for 2000 will require. about NIS 3.1 billion per year. However, if most of the electricity is obtained from large deposits, additional costs will amount to about 2 billion manats per year. “It’s important that decisions about how much renewable energy to produce come after a public debate that provides input on the implications of different options,” Simhon tells Globes.
According to the report, the conclusion is that meeting the targets with current technologies makes electricity 11-14% more expensive for the economy. Technological advances in the industry and falling component costs mean that the difference in the overheads of generating electricity under long-term contracts is expected to decrease in the future.
The results come a month after the National Planning and Building Commission approved regulations by the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure and the Planning Administration requiring every new non-residential building and every new detached house to install solar panel systems. renewable energy production. As part of the new rules, any new non-residential building with a roof area of ​​more than 250 square meters will be required to install a renewable energy generation system.
In addition, the new regulations require the installation of a photovoltaic system with a roof area of ​​100 square meters and a minimum production capacity of 5 kilowatts in new private residential buildings. The purpose of choosing such a capacity is that it is expected to be sufficient for the consumption of that household. The Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure estimates that the regulations will result in a total installed capacity of about 3,500 megawatts by 2040, while addressing another important issue: saving about 35,000 dunams (8,750 acres) of land.
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New buildings must have solar panels
The Ministry’s position is that significant progress in the integration of renewable energy requires both surface and dual-use fields. This policy stems from Israel’s lack of land resources and the advantages inherent in using solar roofs—such as decentralization in the face of security threats. The main disadvantage of the large solar fields located in the Negev in Israel is the distance from the consumption centers. Therefore, transmission infrastructures that occupy the road itself are required. At the same time, when solar panels are placed in the center of a city, for example in Tel Aviv, grid resources are saved and supply reliability is increased.
Israel is chronically falling short of its goals
Both the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure and the National Economic Council are well aware that the State of Israel is chronically falling short of its renewable energy target. For example, in 2022, Israel reached the goal for 2020 – 10% production from renewable energy. Israel has a different problem: 96% of its renewable energy is solar and is expected to remain so in the future. Israel does not have hydropower (hydro) resources or wind farms on a significant scale.
Therefore, the question arises, how to achieve the goal of efficient integration of renewable energy. According to a new report, the cost of installing one kilowatt on plots of land is about 2,000 NIS, 3,400 NIS on rooftops, or 4,500 NIS in agrovoltaic projects. In Israel, when you want to realize significant plots of land in favor of solar fields – the options are mainly in the Negev.
Therefore, there is a problem of transmission to the demand area in central Israel. In a 2019 study by the National Economic Council with consulting firm Aviv Engineering on the cost of transmitting electricity from a large facility in the south, the Negev dry solar field with an installed capacity of 5.2 gigawatts had transmission costs of NIS 3.2. -4.1 billion
Negev land use for solar projects on agricultural land prices determined that the economic quantification of this case, the estimated cost of land for a solar project to generate 5.2 gigawatts of electricity, is 87-125 million NIS. Thus, the total cost to meet the government’s goals is estimated at US$39.7-40.6 billion, including significant solar projects of 5.2 gigawatts.
The Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure’s 2030 renewable energy roadmap includes not only land plots, but also agrovoltaic (4,000 NIS per kilowatt), large rooftops over 630 kilowatts (2,700 NIS per kilowatt), small rooftops up to 630 kilowatts (NIS 3400), reservoirs (NIS 3300), military bases and other dual-use areas such as junctions, landfills and roads (NIS 3500). The result is NIS 48.2 billion to generate 5.2 gigawatts, according to the National Economic Council. In other words, the estimated savings will be approximately 7.4-8.4 billion manats.
More than half of the world’s solar energy comes from concentrated generation
As with many energy issues, the world is ahead of Israel. According to the report, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 56% of the world’s solar energy production comes from concentrated energy projects, that is, large areas dedicated only to energy production. The rest of the production is distributed about 27% from industrial and commercial areas (mainly roofing) and only about 16% from residential areas.
This has not always been the case. Concentrated generation accounted for only 20% of all solar power in 2010, but this rose to around 55%-57% by 2016 and has remained at these levels since then. According to the IEA’s production forecast, between 2022 and 2027, production from solar technology is expected to come mainly from concentrated production, accounting for about 60%. An examination of the forecast for sources of solar energy production growth for this period by producer type shows that production growth with centralized production systems in Israel will be much lower than in the rest of the world. This would account for 33% of total growth, compared to a global average of 57%.
When it comes to solar energy production, the Netherlands is an exception in the world in general and in Europe in particular. Due to land shortage, the volume of additions through significant land projects is estimated at 26%. After difficulties with the distribution of solar panels in the Netherlands, the management of The Hague turned to rooftops. However, this has become its own thorn. Citizens are paying the consequences and electricity tariffs in the Netherlands are three times higher than in Israel and almost twice the EU average.
Globes, Israel business news – en.globes.co.il – published on September 11, 2024.
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