The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Thursday that he saw “positive surprises” for the growth of emerging and developing economies in the first three months of the year, related to the sales and pauses in the tariff war promoted by the US president, Donald Trump, which could influence an upward review of the deceleration projections by 2025.
“We have observed some positive surprises in the growth of the first quarter for this group of countries, including China. We have also seen recent reductions in some tariffs, which represents an upward risk for our prognosis,” replied the IMF spokeswoman Julie Kozack, during a press conference.
In April, the agency cut half a point in its forecast for global economic growth up to 2.8% due to the effects of Trump’s tax policy and a fall for emerging and developing markets, 4.3% in 2024 to 3.7% this year.
Since then, pauses in the application of tariffs by Washington and the agreements achieved with the United Kingdom and China, modified the economic panorama, something that the IMF will take into account for the review of its projections, whose publication is scheduled for the end of July.
Given what the agency describes as “a complex economic and uncertainty panorama” for emerging and developing economies, the IMF recommends a “a multifaceted political response.”
“First, monetary policy and macroprudential or prudential policies to maintain stability in countries should be carefully calibrated. We also recommend this group of countries to rebuild the fiscal maneuver margins,” Kozack said.
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The spokeswoman also recalled that they encouraged countries “to undertake the necessary reforms not to delay the reforms associated with the impulse to productivity and long -term growth.”
“In the IMF, we have been talking about a low growth and high indebtedness environment, and this, of course, also applies to this group of countries. Therefore, addressing debt is important, of course, through fiscal consolidation, but also, and in a very important way, boosting growth and increased productivity,” Kozack warned.
The IMF cut at half a point the forecast of global economic growth for this year, to 2.8%, due to the effect in all the economies of the tariff war unleashed by Trump, which according to the forecasts, will mainly shed to the United States, China and Mexico.
Specifically for emerging markets and developing economies, the IMF foresees in its ABIRL estimates a respective fall of 0.5 and 0.4 points, up to 3.7% and 3.9%, respectively, this year and the following.
For Latin America and the Caribbean, a reduction is anticipated compared to January 0.5 points in 2025 (up to 2%) and 0.3 by 2026 (2.4%).
With EFE information
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