The approval of the countries of the European Union (EU) to sign the agreement with Mercosur does not represent the end of the road for this historic pact, which could still face setbacks before the European justice system and in its ratification process in the European Parliament during 2026.
The favorable vote of a qualified majority of EU countries this Friday clears the way for the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to travel next week to Asunción (Paraguay) to sign the pact with her partners from Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.
The vote against by France, Poland, Hungary, Austria and Ireland, together with the abstention of Belgium, was not enough to counteract the support of other large EU countries, such as Spain, Germany and Italy – which has voted “yes” in recent days -, which managed to push through the vote with a majority of countries representing 68.7% of the European population (the minimum was 65%).
The signing in Asunción gives rise, however, to a complicated path until the complete ratification of the agreement, which depends on the European Parliament (for the purely commercial chapters) and the national parliaments of the countries of both blocs.
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Problems in Parliament
The European Parliament cannot retouch the pact, only scrutinize it and subsequently approve or reject it in its entirety; Its International Trade and Foreign Affairs committees will do so first and then the plenary session as a whole will have to vote on it. It is not yet clear whether a majority of his 719 MEPs will give him their support.
“The European Parliament is truly divided today. It will be decided by ten or fifteen votes of more than 700 deputies. One must be very cautious when affirming that Mercosur will be ratified with certainty,” predicted French liberal MEP Pascal Canfin in an interview.
It is likely that the groups will not vote homogeneously, as usually happens in votes in the European Parliament, but rather that the country of origin of each deputy will have more weight than their parliamentary affiliation.
For example, the powerful Polish delegation of the European People’s Party will probably follow the position of its government and vote against it, according to parliamentary sources, although the European Popular Party will vote mostly in favor of ratification.
This is also the case of the French deputies distributed among the different political groups, more than 80 in total, and predictably also of some Belgians and Irish.
On the other hand, some groups have spoken out entirely against it: this is the case of the Patriots for Europe, in which Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen’s party is by far the largest member, as well as the Greens and the Left.
Also read: Brazil celebrates the progress of negotiations to include cars and sugar in Mercosur
Possible ruling of European justice
Even before reaching that final vote, the European Parliament could freeze the ratification of the pact until the Court of Justice of the European Union determines whether it is compatible with the European treaties.
A group of 145 MEPs added their signatures already at the end of 2025 to a text that questioned the legal validity of the rebalancing mechanism included in the pact and also the legal basis chosen for its approval, which allows the chapters of the agreement focused on trade to be ratified without the consent of national parliaments.
Although the first attempt to bring it to a full vote failed in November, sources close to the initiative indicate that they are working to include it on the agenda of the January plenary session, where it would be voted on by a simple majority.
If Parliament approves the proposal to request an opinion from the Court of Justice of the EU, ratification will be postponed until the European court has issued its opinion.
Long journey through national parliaments
Finally, the parts of the pact that go beyond the purely commercial will have to be ratified by the parliaments of each of the member states of the European Union, a process that can take years.
Reluctant countries that have remained in the minority in the Council can thus exercise the veto from their national Parliaments, although the pact will now be applied provisionally even if not all countries have completed that step.
The Austrian Parliament, among others, has spoken out against the agreement and forced its Government to veto it in the Council of the European Union. The Parliament of the Netherlands did the same in 2024, although since then the Dutch Government has changed its position and is now a defender of the agreement.
With information from EFE
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