The level of microplastics in the environment could be three times higher in 2060 than in 2019, even with the application of one of the two ambitious political scenarios for the reduction of plastics, according to a new model that integrates parameters of earth, sea and air.
The results are published in the journal Science Advances and, according to scientists, the refine model the existing analysis of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Led by Jeroen Sonke, from the Geosciences and Environment Laboratory of Toulouse (France), the team used recent data and models coupled Tierra-Mar-Atmosphere to recalculate the accumulation of plastic in the oceans (represented by the number of deposits of marine plastics) and the Tierra-Mar transport from 1950 to 2060.
The results “differ, they say, notably” from OECD estimates (in 2022, this organization published two proposals to reduce plastic pollution, a regional and another global action).
For example, the Equipment of Sonke’s approach indicates that in 2015 it probably occurred between 4 and 9 times more plastic contamination than was thought.
From the reviewed data, the researchers reassess the projections based on each of the OECD roadmates, as well as the “system change scenario” (SCS, pos their acronym in English), similar to that of OECD’s global action.
For all, the results showed that the total land and maritime transport of plastics will increase up to 23 theragers in 2045. After 2045, it will stabilize with regional action and decrease with the global or the SCS.
In particular, even with global action or SCS, microplastics of less than 0.3 millimeters could continue to be three times higher in 2060 than they were in 2019.
Limitations of work
Roberto Rosal, from the Department of Analytical Chemistry, Physical Chemistry and Chemical Engineering of the University of Alcalá (Spain), explains that this study uses a known model, the GBM-Plastics, which has important limitations that affect the validity of its forecasts.
Specifically, the estimation of flows and fees is “quite adventurized” by the little information about the real rates of fragmentation, degradation, sedimentation or aggregation, especially of smaller microplastics, and the one that is based on estimates of literature that use diverse methodologies, when not incompatible.
“In short, the effort is interesting, but its conclusions are only the long -term prediction of a very simple model and that, therefore, has a great uncertainty,” says this professor of Chemical Engineering, which does not participate in the study, collects the Science Media Center Spain platform.
In addition, it is based on an OECD prediction that, in turn, uses its own model to estimate that the use of plastics will triple between 2019 and 2060.
For this to be true, production should grow at a rate of 3% per year (geometric progression) over the next 38 years, when the last ten average is doing to 2.4% and that of the last five (2018-2022) to 0.8% (according to Europe Europe data).
“That is, the conclusion of the study is true: the plastic that has been poured (and will be poured) will continue to fragment and disperse by the environment. However, quantitative predictions are only orientative and the need to adopt remedy mechanisms exists independently of them.”
With EFE information.
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