Since its entry into force in July 2020, the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) has established itself as a key element of the economic integration of North America. According to UBS, the agreement has brought cross -border trade to historical figures, exceeding 1.5 billion dollars per year, about 3 million every minute, and generating millions of jobs in the region. In 1993 (last year before NAFTA), trilateral trade was just 290 billion dollars. He grew more than 5 times!
Of every 100 dollars that the United States imports, around 15 come from Mexico, the world’s world exporter of cars (more than 80% of its production goes to the northern neighbor).
The T-MEC is facing a review phase. The clause sunset (Article 34.7) It stipulates that before July 1, 2026, the three countries will evaluate their performance and decide on an extension of 16 years. If an agreement will not reach, annual reviews will be applied until 2036. The process begins on October 1, 2025 with a 90 -day consultation period, and in January 2026 the Office of the United States Commercial Representative will deliver its report to the Congress of that country. In Mexico, the Fourth of together He has already started preparations to actively participate.
Although it is not a total renegotiation, the United States could request stricter rules in areas such as National Security, Foreign Investment, Digital Trade and Intellectual Property, in addition to supervising the participation of Chinese capital in Mexico. Despite these possible changes, high economic integration and mutual benefits, they make a complete break unlikely.
Despite the advances in migration and safety, with reduction of migratory flows on the southern border by 80% and decreased fentanyl seizures in more than 40%, Washington could apply a 30% tariff to certain Mexican products. UBS indicates that between 75% and 87% of bilateral trade is still protected by the T-MEC.
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TMEC: The more than 3 million puddle per minute that moves North America
During its participation in Economic North, the Podcast of Grupo Financiero Banorte, Casas Alatriste, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM) in Mexico, stressed that our country maintains advantages over global competitors. The effective tariff for Mexican exports ranges between 10%and 13%, well below that countries such as China (more than 40%) or Brazil (greater than 25%) face. Trust is also reflected in foreign direct investment (FDI), which according to Alejandro Padilla, an economist in Chief of Banorte, reached a new historical maximum by growing 10.2% per year in the first semester of 2025.
You have the confidence that the T-MEC will continue in force, although with stricter conditions.
Did you know that …
- The treaty includes a provision that allows partners to expel a member if this signs a free trade agreement with a “non -market economy” (mainly thought of in China).
- Mexico made tequila and mezcal protected as denominations of origin; Canada did the same with his whiskey, and so, they cannot occur in another country with those names.
- It is one of the first treaties in the world to prohibit tariffs on digital trade and shield the protection of personal data and electronic transactions.
- For the first time in a commercial treaty of this magnitude, a chapter dedicated exclusively to small and medium enterprises was created, seeking to integrate into export chains.
- It also allows you to sanction specific factories or companies if they are proven to use forced labor or violate labor rights.
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