Canada is increasingly willing to expel Mexico from the USMCA. All because of growing Canadian nationalism and populism, materialized by the head of Government of the province of Ontario, Doug Ford, and by the lukewarm position of the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.
Diplomatic sources in Ottawa indicated to EFE that Canadian politicians are currently interested in launching a provocative message that turns Mexico into the problem of North American trade, given the return of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States as of January 20. of 2025.
Another diplomat suggests that the Canadian strategy would be part of a negotiating tactic ahead of the 2026 review of the trade agreement to extract painful concessions because the departure of the Latin American country is “almost impossible” given the economic interconnection that exists in the region.
But there are also experts who consider that the approach of Canadian politicians is not a ruse and that the original North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which incorporated Mexico in 1994 into the agreement that Canada and the US already had, had many detractors.
Read: Sheinbaum responds to Trudeau that the trilateral USMCA ‘is very good’ for Canada
The car is the key
The emeritus professor of Politics at the University of Toronto Nelson Wiseman recalled this Friday in statements to EFE that he was not surprised by Ford’s proposal or the support he has received from other provincial heads of government.
“I was not surprised because Canada was not in favor of expanding NAFTA in 1994 when Mexico joined. Since then, Canada’s automobile industry has lost to Mexico,” Wiseman stated.
The academic added that “Ottawa is not opposed to Mexico remaining in the agreement as long as it is not at the expense of Canada.”
The automobile industry is the key to the controversy.
On November 12, Doug Ford stressed that while the US and Canada have already announced that they will apply 100% tariffs on Chinese cars, Mexico not only has not done so but is opening the door for the Asian giant’s manufacturers to establish in their territory.
“If Mexico wants a bilateral trade agreement with Canada, God bless them, but I am not going to let them sink me with these cheap imports that take away jobs from men and women in Ontario,” he said.
Trudeau, open to everything
The main supporter of the USMCA in Canada so far has been the ruling Liberal Party and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
But his low popularity in the polls, which place him more than 20 points behind the opposition Conservative Party, has led Trudeau and the Liberals to adopt more nationalist and populist positions.
Although Liberal deputies contacted by EFE refuse to comment on the possible expulsion of Mexico, Trudeau offered a tepid defense of the current trade agreement on Thursday by pointing out that, although the USMCA is a “success” for the three countries, he does not reject any possibility.
Read: Sheinbaum assures that Trudeau ‘does not agree’ with removing Mexico from the USMCA
“We are leaving the door open because my job is and always will be to defend Canadian workers, defend the Canadian economy, defend Canadian interests,” he declared in one of his most nationalist messages in recent years.
It would not be the first time in recent months that Trudeau has implemented policies that he criticized in the past.
Without going any further, in February of this year Canada once again required visas for Mexican visitors, a controversial measure that was imposed in 2009 by the government of conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and that Trudeau annulled as soon as he came to power at the end of 2015. .
An additional factor will be what happens in the next Canadian general elections, scheduled for the end of 2025, but which could be brought forward at any time because the Trudeau Government is in a minority in the Lower House of Parliament.
Populist Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives and who has a good chance of being the next Canadian leader, declared that he will “fight fire with fire” if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada. Something that would be the finishing touch to the TMEC.
With information from EFE
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