The 21st century has witnessed a structural transformation of the international system, marked by the return of competition between powers and the rise of hybrid threats that have accelerated a new arms race.
This phenomenon, far from replicating the patterns of the Cold War, is distinguished by technological sophistication, the fragmentation of the global order and the convergence between the civil and military sectors. In 2024, global military spending reached 2.7 billion dollars, registering its highest growth rate in three decades. This increase has been driven by geopolitical factors such as Russian invasion to Ukraine, the increase in tensions in Indo-Pacific and uncertainty about the future role of the United States as guarantor of Western security.
Recent history shows that, after the fall of the Soviet block, world military spending experienced a relative stagnation. However, as of 2014, with the annexation of Crimea, a new rearme cycle began that was dramatically deepened in 2022. From then on, Europe, traditionally dependent on US deterrence, began to reorient its strategic priorities.
Germany, for example, launched the most ambitious rearma program since World War and joint acquisition strategies to accelerate the reindustrialization of the sector.
In this scenario, the United States retains its supremacy in terms of innovation and technological capacity, with companies such as Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman leading the global arms industry. However, it faces logistics challenges, such as the limited production capacity of advanced defense systems – example is the slowdown in the delivery of Patriot missiles to Ukraine and European allies -, which has led Washington to reconsider its production model in prolonged conflict times.
At the same time, China has strengthened the integration of its military industry with the civil technological sector, consolidating an autonomous productive base and oriented to deter interventions in its regional environment. Although it exports less weapons than Russia or the United States, its technological influence and its control over strategic raw materials reinforce their deterrence.
Russia, meanwhile, has maintained its war effort through internal subsidies and the indirect support of allied powers, although its economy continues to resell the impact of multilateral sanctions and commercial separation with the West.
A distinctive feature of this new arms career is the intensive incorporation of artificial intelligence, autonomous systems and cyber -defense in national arsenals. Unlike conventional wars of the twentieth century, conflicts of the present and future tend to get rid of virtual domains, where data processing speed can define the course of a confrontation. This environment has resulted in an algorithmic career, in which the risks of climbing do not lie in the political intention and in the inability to control the systems that are activated in milliseconds.
For Mexico and Latin America, this new environment imposes complex strategic dilemmas. Although the region maintains relatively low military spending levels, the collateral effects of global militarization – from the increase in defense systems to pressure for geopolitical alignments – begin to become visible. Given this, it is urgent to promote a regional position based on the strengthening of citizen security capacities, the ethical control of dual technologies, transparency in military acquisitions and active participation in multilateral forums on emerging armament governance.
The acceleration of this contemporary arms career reflects a deep redefinition of the global order, where the powers are reconfigured not only based on their destructive power, but of its ability to lead in military innovation, strategic autonomy and control of key resources. In this context, Latin America has the opportunity to position itself as a region promoting peace, the regulation responsible for the use of force and strengthening multilateralism, without compromising its resources in a dynamic of rearmament that, although necessary for some, can be unnecessary and unsustainable for others.
The key is to understand that the security of the 21st century is not measured exclusively by the number of tanks or drones, but by the ability to build resilient, governable and peaceful environments in an increasingly unstable world.
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