The formal beginning of the process of analysis and review of the treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC), which began this week in compliance with article 34.7 of the Agreement, represents a decisive moment for the North America region. Six years after its entry into force, the treaty faces its first structural evaluation, an exercise that is not limited to verifying progress and lags, but opens the possibility of redefining the architecture of regional trade in a global environment marked by geopolitical tensions, technological challenges and growing demands in terms of sustainability. Mexico, in particular, is at the center of this situation, forced to balance the need to strengthen its competitiveness with the defense of its regulatory sovereignty and its strategic interests.
The review mechanism includes a period of public consultations in the three countries, through which governments, productive sectors and civil society may issue recommendations and proposals for the future of the agreement. In Mexico, the Ministry of Economy opened a period of 60 days to receive contributions by electronic and physical means, while in the United States the commercial representative’s office even scheduled public audiences. This institutional design, which encourages broad participation, can become an opportunity for traditionally marginalized actors of the debate – as small and medium enterprises, unions or environmental associations – place issues that do not always reach visibility in high -level negotiations on the table. However, it also exposes the limitations of technical and legal capacities of various sectors, which could limit the real impact of their contributions against the interests of business conglomerates and governments with greater resources.
The debate that opens the strictly commercial. The review occurs in a context of redefinition of the global economic order, with the United States by pressing to include issues such as digital trade, regulation of critical minerals, security and migration on the regional agenda. This widening of the negotiation perimeter reflects both the strategic priorities of Washington and the growing interdependence between trade, security and industrial policy. For Mexico, accepting the incorporation of these matters implies significant risks if clear limits are established that avoid the erosion of their regulatory autonomy. The tension, then, is located between preserving national flexibility to promote development policies and respond to the pressures of its main commercial partner, with which it maintains more than 80% of its outer exchange.
The critical areas to review are not minor. In the automotive field, the rules of origin have shown rigidity and high compliance costs, affecting the competitiveness of the chain. In the agricultural and agro -industrial field, disputes on biotechnology, subsidies and sanitary standards persist. In the energy sphere, Mexico faces questions about the orientation of its policy, especially with respect to foreign investments and sustainability. To this is added the growing relevance of labor and environmental commitments, items where TMEC introduced binding mechanisms that, although they raise standards, also generate tensions about their application. The result of this review will not only be an accounting balance of commercial profits and losses, but the configuration of a regulatory framework that will affect the way in which the region faces global challenges such as climate change, digitalization and resilience of supply chains.
In the face of this process, Mexico must bet on a technical, cohesive and propositional strategy. It is not enough to react to the demands of its partners; It is essential to articulate a vision that placed regional productivity, technological innovation and social inclusion in the center of the agenda. This implies proposing simplifications in rules of origin that reduce costs without undermining the integrity of the regional market; Promote customs modernization and transparency to combat unfair practices; and guarantee that sustainability and ESG criteria become pillars of competitiveness rather than regulatory loads. At the same time, Mexico must insist on trilateral cooperation mechanisms that prevent the asymmetry of economic power among partners from deriveing unilateral impositions that compromise their sovereignty.
The TMEC review is also an internal policy exercise. The Mexican government will have to demonstrate leadership to integrate the voices of productive sectors, academy and civil society in a coherent and solid national position. If it achieves, this process can serve as a catalyst for a broader discussion about the development model that the country wishes to project within the framework of regional integration. If, on the other hand, a defensive or fragmented attitude predominates, Mexico runs the risk of being marginalized in a process where the decisions that are taken will define the course of their economy during the next decades.
In short, TMEC review is not a routine procedure. It is a strategic situation in which Mexico, the United States and Canada must decide whether their commercial integration will limit themselves to managing controversies or if it will become a true competitiveness and development platform against a world in rapid transformation. For Mexico, the key will be to convert this exercise into an opportunity to project a future of integration with its own vision, balancing pragmatism with principles, opening with sovereignty, and trade with inclusive and sustainable development.
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