So far this year, more than 28 thousand Mexicans have obtained legal residence in Spain and more than 9 thousand in Portugal. They are not just any type of migrants, nor those who usually crossed the border with the United States to look for any job and be able to send remittances to their families in marginalized areas of the country.
We are talking about those who invested a minimum of 500 thousand euros in real estate or who demonstrated income of more than 42 thousand euros per year. This is 41 percent more compared to previous records and places Mexico as the fourth nationality with the most residences in Spain and the sixth in Portugal.
This is not migration, it is selective evacuation, Mexico is the Latin American country that receives the most visas of this type in those countries, in the same period in Miami 42 percent of the purchases of residential properties over three million dollars were made by Mexican buyers, in Texas real estate agents speak of the “silent boom” of Monterrey and Guadalajara families who buy houses for between 5 and 8 million dollars.
It is clear that it is not traditional migration, it is the top 0.3 percent of the income pyramid, medium and large entrepreneurs, founders of unicorns, heirs of industrial groups, elite doctors, corporate lawyers, bankers and content creators who bill in dollars. They are the ones who pay 72 percent of the ISR of natural persons and generate 68 percent of formal employment.
To identify the causes, there are three essential non-limiting arguments that explain the phenomenon, the first, the insecurity that is increasingly more sophisticated against this group, the second that the best Mexican universities no longer reach the level and their level has stagnated, in the same way in terms of health regarding hospitals and medical treatments.
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Heading to Spain: the silent exodus of the Mexican elites
A recent third but perhaps the most worrying even above security, a rule of law in liquidation, the judicial reform turned judges into electoral court employees who can eventually declare social interest above any argument and that scares foreign investors and national ones.
But if these numbers are alarming, just look at this year’s Knight Frank Wealth perspective report, in which it is estimated that 38 percent of Mexicans with net assets greater than $30 million plan to emigrate before 2030, a percentage even higher than that of Venezuela.
A survey by De las Heras Demotecnia that asked 400 businessmen with declared assets greater than 10 million dollars, showed that 52 percent are seriously considering removing their family from the country before the next presidential election.
The Bank of Spain reported that deposits by Mexican residents in Spanish banks increased by 68 percent in the last two years and in Lisbon, British and American international schools already have two-year waiting lists for students from our country.
When those who generate jobs and growth, those who pay taxes leave their country, they are not necessarily traitors as some narrative says, the country does not punish the rich, it punishes itself. Spain and Portugal are not giving them anything, in fact they require them to invest, create companies and pay taxes and that is a double loss for Mexico, of capital and talent.
The cost is much higher from any perspective, each family that leaves with between 10 and 20 million dollars stops paying between 2 and up to 6 million pesos annually in ISR and ISN, if only 20 percent of them do so in the next 5 years, the treasury will lose between 45 and 60 billion pesos annually, to estimate it that is more than what the entire tax on sugary drinks collects.
The exodus of the Mexican elites is a reaction, conceptually rational, much more than ideological, motivated by the probability of the risk of losing freedom, security and heritage. Mexico cannot afford to lose these groups, it should not continue giving them reasons to leave.
The opinions expressed are solely the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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