Mexico will generate only 180,000 formal jobs by the end of 2025, due to zero economic growth, estimated the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF).
“The estimate of real GDP growth for 2025 decreases in December to 0.4 percent, compared to the 0.5 percent that had been maintained during the previous three months,” revealed the National Committee for Economic Studies of the IMEF, which carries out a monthly survey among its members on the main macroeconomic variables.
The survey includes economic expectations for 2025, 2026 and 2027 from 43 analysts, all of them economists with extensive experience and recognized prestige.
“In December 2025, 49 percent of participants reduced their estimate, placing the median at 0.4 percent of economic growth for this year,” the survey stated.
The survey shows that the most optimistic economic growth forecast is 0.8 percent, while the most pessimistic is -0.1 percent for 2025. That is, it is a fall in gross domestic product (GDP).
“The employment forecast for 2025 increases to 180 thousand insured workers in the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), compared to the previous figure of 160 thousand job sources,” detailed the IMEF.
Every year the Mexican economy requires one million 200 thousand jobs for the entire population that wants to be active.
“We should be generating almost a million jobs at this point,” said ITESO, Jesuit University of Guadalajara.
“With constant population growth, we should be increasing these numbers, not decreasing them,” said Mireya Pasillas, an academic in the Department of Economics, Administration and Marketing of the educational institution.
The specialist added that the formal market is very restrictive and there are not enough opportunities out there for people to replace a drop in income with remittances.
“The slowdown experienced in the Mexican economy is incapable of generating jobs, with less dynamism in production and with the lack of investment by companies in the face of general uncertainty,” said Mireya Pasillas.
On December 8, 2025, Zoé Robledo, general director of the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), reported that as of November 30, the country reached a new formal employment record with 22 million 837 thousand 768 jobs affiliated with Social Security, the highest figure in the history of the Institute since records began.
The head of the IMSS explained that of the total jobs, 86.7 percent are permanent; This is equivalent to 19 million 800 thousand stable jobs, the highest figure when considering any month in the history of Social Security.
He noted that in the month of November, 48,595 new jobs were created and so far in 2025, 599,000 jobs have been created, which represents a growth rate of 2.7 percent.
Between November 2024 and November 2025 with 194,130 new jobs, this is an annual rate of 0.9 percent, commented Zoe Robledo.
The Mexican Institute of Finance Executives recalled that the inflation rate forecast for 2025 remains at 3.8 percent again.
He added that the estimate of the monetary policy rate for the end of 2025 is again at 7 percent.
And the exchange rate expected for the end of 2025 is located this last month of the year at 18.50 pesos
per dollar, a figure lower than the estimate in November (18.80 pesos per dollar).
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