Titular
The so -called Trump reciprocal tariffs are scheduled to enter into force on August 1, after a 90 -day delay, just when US families begin purchases for return to classes, and could increase the cost of consumer goods imported from other countries.
Key data
Price increases caused by tariffs could cost US households an additional average of $ 2,700 in 2025, according to Yale Budget Lab in its most recent analysis, published after the Trump administration announced trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines this week.
The tariffs that will begin in August are the reciprocal tariffs Trump announced for the first time during his “Liberation Day” event in April, and that have been repeatedly delayed in recent months.
The Trump administration has been implementing new rates for individual countries while trying to negotiate trade agreements.
Important Commercial Partners of the United States will face significant rates, including a 35% tariff to Canadian imports and 30% to the European Union.
Ernie Tedeschi, director of Economics of Yale Budget Lab, told Forbes: “I think the experience of return to classes will be particularly exposed to tariffs this year,” noting that many of the products looking for parents and students are imported from countries with relatively high rates, such as China.
Trump suggested that the rates would not fall from 15%, and told the public at an AI summit on Wednesday that countries would face “a direct and simple tariff of between 15%and 50%”, reserving the highest rates for countries “with which we have not been getting along … very well.”
Lee: Sheinbaum reports that I would look for a call with Trump if he does not reach a tariff agreement
Cita Crucial
“These tariffs are more likely to affect low -income families,” Tedeschi said. “This is one of the reasons why tariffs are what we call a regressive tax, a tax that harms lower income families than to the highest income. It is not just that families with less resources spend most of their income, but that it is more likely to buy products imported from countries that are being more strongly affected by tariffs, particularly China.”
How will the tariffs affect the return to classes?
The prices of the most expensive items in school shopping lists, such as computers and electronic, will increase 20.5% in the short term, Tedeschi told Forbes.
An impressive increase of 40% in leather products, a wide category that includes shoes, footwear and bags, could also occur, according to the predictions of Yale Budget Lab. Tedeschi mentioned that shoes and bags are “particularly exposed” to incoming tariffs: “In some cases, shoes are assembled in the United States. But even in those cases, they often use fabrics and parts that come from abroad.”
It is also expected that the costs of the clothing rise 36% in the short term, since the United States imports a large part of its footwear and economic clothing from China (which faces a 30% scheduled tariff to enter into force on August 12, although the secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, said that this date will probably extend).
Will tariffs affect food prices?
The general prices of food are expected to rise around 3.7% in the short term, according to Budget Lab, but the price of fresh products could increase 6.7%. “It is almost two years of accumulated inflation above what we would have had otherwise,” Tedeschi said.
It is widely expected that coffee prices will increase: Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer, and the United States imported approximately 35% of its coffee beans from this South American nation in 2023, according to USDA. However, Brazil faces one of the highest rates (50%) because Trump tries to press the Brazilian government to end the persecution against former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The United States is the largest importer of rice in the western hemisphere, buying mainly aromatic rice such as Thailand jasmine (with a 36% tariff) and Basmati rice in India and Pakistan (with tariffs initially set at 26% and 29% in April, respectively).
It should be noted that the Trump administration said that Japan would begin to buy more American rice as part of the commercial agreement announced on Tuesday night. However, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ihiba said his country “did not make any sacrifice in the agricultural sector.” Last year, Japan imported 770,000 metric tons of rice, with about 45% from the USA, UU., Reuters reported.
The majority of imported wine to the United States comes from countries in the European Union, including France, Italy and Spain, and the EU will face a 30% tariff from August, although negotiators allegedly work in an agreement to reduce this rate.
Other food prices are rising, including chocolate, but it is not yet clear the impact that tariffs will have on their prices: Hershey’s announced a price increase, but these increases “are not related to tariffs or commercial policies” and are due to supplies of supplies in Ghana and Ivory Coast, which produce around 60% of the world cocoa.
Trump initially proposed a 21% tariff for ivory coast in April, but finally gave up, and Hershey’s has asked the Trump administration with an exemption from cocoa tariffs, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.
The prices of beef reached historical maximums this summer due to factors such as the reduction of cattle and droughts, NBC News reported, but the United States still imports some meat, and the highest percentage comes from Brazil – the world’s largest exporter of meat that now faces a “cold” market in the US. Uu. After the announcement of 50% tariffs by the Trump administration, Reuters reported last week.
Will cars and automotive parts rise?
The average price of a new car in April was $ 48,422, an increase of 2.2% compared to April 2024, according to Edmunds, which indicated in a recent report that the current impact of tariffs on the market has been “moderate.”
However, the Budget Lab now predicts that the next tariffs will raise cars prices by approximately 13.1%, which represents an increase of $ 6,300 over that average.
Motorized vehicles are also expected to rise 17.3%.
“Obviously, foreign cars will be more exposed to tariffs than national cars,” said Tedeschi. However, Tedeschi also pointed out that American cars “have many foreign pieces in their manufacture.”
“The brand with the highest national content is Tesla. And that is 80% national, which means that a fifth of the car is foreign, and those foreign pieces are also subject to tariffs,” said Tedeschi. “People shouldn’t think that you can avoid tariff if you buy national cars.”
What to observe
The Yale Budget Lab breaks down the price increases projected by tariffs in immediate increases and in prices at five or ten years, “after consumers and companies have had time to replace products, and world production has the opportunity to adjust and reoptimize around tariffs,” Tedeschi said. This reoptimization could include companies to return production to the United States or displace it to countries with lower rates.
Great figure
2.9 billion dollars. That is the amount that is expected that Trump’s tariffs collect in the next decade, according to Budget Lab. Tax Foundation made a similar projection last week, predicting that taxes would generate 2.5 billion, assuming that all tariffs resist judicial challenges.
Key history
A week after implementing the new tariff regime on the “Day of Liberation,” the Trump administration announced a 90 -day pause for application, giving time to individual nations to negotiate new trade agreements with the US. UU. And promising “90 agreements in 90 days.” However, during those three months of pause, the Administration only achieved trade agreements with three countries – China, Vietnam and the United Kingdom – which led Trump to postpone the deadline again. In the weeks after the second pause, Trump has announced more important agreements with key commercial partners, being the most recent with Japan, which managed to negotiate a 25% tariff reduction announced in April to 15%.
This article was originally published by Forbes US
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