It is no secret that tech has been responsible for most of the market’s gains this year. But that tech trade may not look the same in 2025 as favorites such as AppLovin and Netflix could actually take a hit. Investors piled money into the tech sector for the second straight year in 2024, particularly into the semiconductor industry and projected artificial intelligence beneficiaries. The Nasdaq-100 index, which measures the performance of 100 of the largest Nasdaq-listed nonfinancial companies, is up roughly 29% this year, surpassing the S & P 500’s 26% advance. The tech-heavy index’s constituents include Apple , Nvidia , Broadcom and Tesla . Some of those tech names could decline next year after their massive runup, however. Using the CNBC Pro stock screener , we took a look at the consensus price forecasts of the companies in the Nasdaq-100 and found that the stocks below are projected to post negative returns over the next 12 months. Of the index, Tesla shares stand to lose the most. Analysts polled by LSEG have a consensus price target on the stock that forecasts a potential 35% decline. As of Monday’s close, shares of the electric vehicle maker have jumped about 80% this year after doubling in 2023. Most of those gains have erupted since President-elect Donald Trump’s election, which led to bets that CEO Elon Musk’s advisory relationship with Trump and expectations of looser regulation under the new administration will ease Tesla’s autonomous driving goals. Wall Street is looking to see if Tesla can boost its electric vehicle sales , get its unsupervised full self-driving software approved and put its robotaxis on public roads. AppLovin has jumped more than 765% this year, making it the best-performing name out of all tech companies valued at $5 billion or more, according to FactSet data. The online gaming and advertising stock has shown little signs of stopping, as shares are up nearly 165% this quarter. AppLovin beat earnings and revenue forecasts for its third quarter and issued higher-than-expected revenue expectations for the fourth quarter, increasing analysts’ conviction in the company’s continued profitability. The consensus price target on the stock predicts about 4% potential downside, as of Tuesday. APP YTD mountain Applovin stock performance this year. Analysts also think streaming platform Netflix could be overvalued and forecast shares could fall about 8%. Shares have leapt almost 88% in 2024. Loop Capital managing director Alan Gould recently downgraded his rating on Netflix to hold from buy, saying his main concern about the company is its “historically high” valuation, given that its enterprise value is trading close to the highs seen in mid-2021 and was only topped by a high in mid-2018. “In our view, it is not prudent to project much higher revenue growth assumptions even assuming moves into more genres, such as more live sports, and a successful advertising rollout,” Gould wrote in a Dec. 15 note to clients. Other potential 2025 losers in the Nasdaq-100 could be hotel operator Marriott International and iPhone giant Apple, which each stand to shed around 4% over the next year, according to their consensus price targets on Tuesday.
