Inflation in Mexico would have advanced in May to 4.39% at an annual rate, so it would be located outside the Banxico tolerance margin for the first time so far this year when considering a full month, according to a reuters survey.
If the prognosis was completed, the efforts of the Central Bank would be challenged to continue cutting its key interest rate in the midst of a weakened economy.
The median of the projections of 10 participants showed an annual rate of 4.39% for the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), exceeding 3.93% registered in April.
For underlying inflation, considered a better parameter to measure the price trajectory because it eliminates high volatility products, the median estimates indicates that it would have accelerated to 4.04%.
The prices would have grown 0.23% compared to the previous month, while for the underlying index an increase of 0.27% is expected, according to the survey. The official data will be published by INEGI on Monday.
Banco de México, which has an inflation goal of 3%, with a margin of tolerance of a percentage point up or down, reduced last month its referential interest rate in 50 base points for the third consecutive time to locate it at 8.5%, its lowest level since 2022.
Lee: Inflation in Mexico, it accelerates in the first half of May and exceeds expectations
In its statement, the authority said that the inflationary environment could allow it to continue with the cycle of cuts, implementing adjustments even of magnitude similar to its last movements. His next rate decision is scheduled for June 26.
The Banxico Governing Board also highlighted the weak performance of Mexican economic activity that, although it fought a dreaded technical recession in the first quarter, specialists believe that it is still at risk of showing a contraction.
In the first fortnight of May, general inflation had already left the margin of tolerance of Banxico when located in 4.22% at an annual rate.
With Reuters information
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