Mexico City.- The Mexican economy maintains a moderate but resilient growth trajectory, although a weak investment combination, signs of deceleration in consumption and high external uncertainty requires caution in the second half of the year, according to the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF).
The private sector agency highlighted in a report that the performance of the economy in the second quarter given the context of high commercial uncertainty, climatic tensions and less dynamic consumption.
He explained that the resilience came from industry and services, which countered the recoil of the agricultural sector, affected by droughts and a high comparison base, while in the external sector the rebound of non -oil exports highlighted.
“However, the weakness in imports of capital goods suggests caution in private investment. In addition, relevant risks persist: the threat of new tariffs by the US, the recent regulatory requirements in Mexico and the uncertainty around the revision of the TMEC in 2026,” considered the organ directed by Gabriela Gutiérrez Mora.
The organization published the results of July of its IMEF manufacturing and non -manufacturing IMEF indicators, which indicate that the economy initiated the third quarter with a low activity and without clear indications of strength.
He pointed out that both sectors maintain levels below 50 points, which reflects an economic environment characterized by a weak dynamism.
This indicators evaluate the economic environment based on a survey of five qualitative questions applied to institute members, and are tools that help anticipate the direction of manufacturing and non -manufacturing activity in Mexico and, from the expected evolution of these sectors, infer the possible evolution of the economy in general in the short term.
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He recalled that the growth in the second quarter surprised up with an advance of 0.7% quarterly, exceeding the consensus of analysts and economists of commercial banks, stock market houses and investment funds.
He explained that the industry was promoted by non -residential construction linked to public and rail works. The services also grew supported by retail trade and transport, which suggests that, despite mixed signs in employment and remittances, domestic consumption remains a key engine.
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As for consumption, he stated that the fundamentals continue to grow, although at a lower pace. The salary mass continued up and current income increased 10.6% between 2022 and 2024, driven both by labor income and transfers.
“The remittances, although they showed an annual fall in May (of 4.6%), continue to contribute in real terms, with an increase of 10.4% in pesos thanks to the exchange rate,” he said.
He pointed out that general inflation also showed relief in the first half of July, with an annual rate of 3.55%, again within the target range of Banxico, supported by the fall in agricultural prices.
He added that underlying inflation remains high at 4.25%, especially in services, which could maintain a cautious posture by the Central Bank.
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