The Expenditure Budget for 2026 foresees a public investment of 1 trillion 267,000 million pesos, which represents a real growth of 21% compared to 2025, but does not compensate for the contraction observed this year, according to an analysis by the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research (CIEP).
“Although for the year 2026 public investment would amount to 3.2% of GDP, with a real growth of 21% compared to 2025. This increase seems temporary, since by 2030 public investment would be gradually reduced until reaching 2.6% of GDP. Additionally, compared to public investment in 2024, the amount in 2026 would represent a contraction of 6.5%,” he explained.
He explained that the reduction in public investment planned for 2026-2030 is linked to the adjustment of the public deficit.
He detailed that this negative balance, measured through the Financial Requirements of the Public Sector (RFSP), will also experience a contraction, going from 4.1% of GDP in 2026 to 3.5% in 2027 and 3% from 2028 onwards, in accordance with the General Criteria of Economic Policy 2026.
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“Towards the end of the six-year term, a reduction trend can be seen. The planned fiscal adjustment also restricts the possibility of sustaining high levels of investment, thereby affecting the growth prospects of the economy,” he said.
He stated that the fall in public investment will have negative effects on productivity, economic growth, as well as doubts about the financing and continuity of the strategic works raised by Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration.
The CIEP detailed that by 2026, of the total resources budgeted for infrastructure, 42.3% are allocated to priority projects of the federal administration, among which the following stand out:
- Pemex, with 46% of the total projects
- New Trains, with 19.5%
- Projects in CFE, with 11.4%
- Highways and Roads, with 5.1%
The concentration of spending in 2026 for priority projects in the energy and railway sector leaves fewer resources for other areas that require new infrastructure such as education, health, housing, which can generate greater delays in maintenance and installed capacity starting in 2027, when public investment decreases, according to the CIEP reading.
Regarding Pidiregas (public works financing mechanism that is carried out with investment from the private sector) and Public Private Associations, the research center indicated that the federal government plans to use these financing mechanisms less and less.
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By 2026, the amount allocated to both schemes will fall 95% in real terms and given the weakness of public income and the country’s narrow fiscal space, new strategies are required to promote public infrastructure projects, not only in terms of mobility, but also water, housing, security and health, among others.
Some of them, added the CIEP, possibly through mechanisms that allow private or mixed participation.
“If new mechanisms are not found to boost public investment, the country’s potential growth will continue to be limited in the short and medium term,” he asserted.
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