The civil organization México Evalúa warned this Monday that Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) “will contribute less than what it will receive” in the budget item proposed by the Government of President Claudia Sheinbaum for 2026.
When presenting an analysis of the 2026 Economic Package, soon to be discussed in the Chamber of Deputies, the NGO pointed out that, although a rebound in oil revenues is expected next year, Pemex will generate a net loss of at least 31,000 million pesos.
“Pemex will cost more than it contributes, with a negative net balance of 31,000 million pesos,” the organization warned in a statement.
According to the analysis of México Evalúa, the 2026 Economic Package proposes an item of 263.4 billion pesos, which implies an increase of 87% or 122.5 billion pesos, compared to what was budgeted in 2025.
In contrast, the estimated oil production for 2026 is 1.79 million barrels per day (mbd), “which has not been achieved since 2023,” added the NGO and pointed out that the average production as of June 2025 is 1.62 mdb.
Even if this objective is achieved by 2026, Pemex would have net losses, and if it is not met, “there would be less oil revenue than expected,” México Evalúa added.
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NGO warns that in 2026 Pemex ‘will cost more than it contributes’
“For the first time in history, the federal government will lose resources for its support of Pemex, by transferring more money than the company contributes to the public treasury,” the NGO warned.
In its study, México Evalúa also warned that the country’s public debt will exceed “the ceiling of 20 trillion pesos for the first time” and will be mainly used to pay interest on past debt and support Pemex.
According to the NGO, this debt “will not be reflected in greater spending on health, education or security.”
At the beginning of September, the Sheinbaum Government presented the proposed budget for 2026, which includes strong support for Pemex, with the aim of the state company improving its financial balance without impacting the public sector deficit, since debt amortizations are recorded as a reduction of liabilities and not as a budget expense.
The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) explained that the amount for Pemex will be intended so that “Pemex’s public debt at the end of 2026 is lower than that observed in 2025, with which the company would show net debt relief.”
This is in addition to recent measures implemented by the Government to rescue the most indebted oil company in the world, such as capital contributions of 12 billion dollars through the pre-capitalized notes scheme (P-CAP) and the new investment fund for Pemex with partial participation of public and private resources.
With information from EFE.
