How will the conflict affect Iran to the balance of global power? Answering this question may seem like a useless task given the speed with which events are developed now that the US president, Donald Trump, has joined the war on the side of Israel. Much depends on whether Tehran takes reprisals or asks for peace. So it is possible to identify some factors that will help determine whether the United States, Russia and Europe will emerge from the conflict with greater or lesser power. Will Iran’s nuclear program end? Will war overthrow your regime? Is it a new less hostile government to the United States? Or will the country sink in anarchy?
Other key considerations are whether the United States can limit its intervention to a brief and forceful attack or if it is dragged to a prolonged conflict, and if the rest of the world considers it a dishonest power. If Israel kills more people in Gaza while worldwide attention focuses on Iran, some could also blame the United States to cover it up. The price of oil is another critical factor: last Friday, the cost of the Brent crude barrel had increased around 11% since Israel bombarded Iran for the first time on June 13. Interruptions in maritime transport or pipelines could boost it even more.
Another key factor is whether external agents play a role in the solution of the crisis and obtain some benefit with it.
Read more: when the AI copied your style (and did not pay for that): Who is the owner of what is created artificially?
The conflict with Iran could incline the balance of world power
The United States has a lot to win or lose. End Iran’s nuclear program would be a great victory and reinforce the perception that the United States is world superpower. But despite Trump’s statement to have “completely destroyed” Tehran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, some experts believe that their nuclear threat could be far from ending. Some of Trump’s most prominent republican supporters, as well as allies in the Gulf countries and some European leaders, feared that the United States could cause chaos to join the war. But if Trump manages to neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat and avoid a prolonged conflict, those doubts will dissipate. United States could then divert his attention from the Middle East to China, the only threat would be for its superpower status. Washington could focus its attack groups on the Indo -Pacific, says Richard Fontaine, of the center for a new American security. If the conflict also overthrows the regime led by the supreme leader, Ayatolá Ali Jamenei, the consequences are uncertain.
While a new government could be less antagonistic with Washington, it could be equally hostile. And if they will become a failed state, allies and enemies of the United States would blame it with unbridled destruction and continue destabilizing the region. If the United States is involved in a new eternal war, it would suffer even more damage. «The United States used a Garrafal club in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. All these countries have decreased, instead of increasing, American power, ”says Robin NibleTt, by Chatham House.Trump would also suffer if the conflict with Iran causes a strong crisis in the price of oil; For example, if they will stop the transport of crude oil through the Ormuz Strait. Although American oil companies benefit from high prices, voters detest to pay more for gasoline.
With Reuters information.
You may be interested: Netherlands ask Iran to return to a negotiating table; Libya appeals to the responsibility of the international community
