This is what the data shows

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On September 28, 2025, at least four people died and another eight were injured during a Sunday service in a chapel of the Church of Jesus Christ of the last days in Grand Blanc, Michigan. Just a month earlier, two people died and 21 were injured during a Mass for students in the Catholic Church of the Annunciation in Minneapolis.

These tragedies may seem sudden and foolish, but are part of a broader pattern that we have been tracking.

We are criminologists who have studied violence for decades. In 2023, we created a public database of homicides that occurred in places of worship throughout the United States. This database covers almost 25 years of incidents, documenting the frequency with which these attacks occur, who perpetrates them, what weapons are used, when and where they occur, and their degree of mortality.

What the figures show

From 2000 to 2024, the data set records 379 incidents and 487 deaths in congregations and religious community centers. The majority of the incidents involved a single victim, but some, like the recent shootings in Michigan and Minnesota, caused death or injuries to many people.

Approximately 7 out of 10 incidents involved firearms, which represents three quarters of the deaths. Cases with firearms averaged around 1.4 deaths each, compared to 1.1 in cases without firearms.

The guns were the most common weapon, linked to more than 100 incidents and 147 deaths. However, semi -automatic rifles, although used only in seven cases, killed 46 people, more than six per attack, on average.

The deadliest year was 2017, when 47 people died in places of worship, 42 of them with firearms. Twenty -six of those people died in a single and catastrophic shooting in the first Baptist Church of Sutherland Springs, Texas.

Mass shooting

Mass shootings are often defined as attacks that kill four or more people. Using that threshold, the data shows 10 incidents in places of worship since 2000. If the threshold is reduced to three dead, 14 are registered; With two dead, 40.

The definitions influence perception. Most people associate mass shootings with great repercussion tragedies, such as the massacres of the African Methodist Episcopal Church Emanuel de Charleston in 2015 or the Synagogue Tree of Life of Pittsburgh in 2018. But many other attacks, such as the tragedy of the Announcement in Minneapolis, involve two or three deaths. Each represents a deep loss for a community.

In cases where four or more people died, all authors were men between 20 and 40 years old, with an average age of 32 years. Compared to other homicides in places of worship, these shooters had a much greater probability of having a history of mental health problems: 60% compared to 18%. They were also much more likely to have thought or planned to commit suicide (70% compared to 17%) and die for suicide during or after the attack (60% compared to 10%).

Other similarities were also observed. Among the attackers who killed four or more people, 20% had served in the army and 60% had a criminal record. Among the attackers who killed less people, those figures were 4% and 43%, respectively. The most lethal shooters leaked their plans or showed crisis signs more frequently in advance.

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When and where the shootings occur

Violence is more likely to occur on Sundays (a quarter of all cases), followed by Saturdays. This reflects cult patterns: Sundays are the day of greatest activity for most Christian denominations, while Saturdays are common for Jewish services.

The incidents are concentrated in the mornings and nights, the most common mornings, the main schedule for weekly services. And despite the headlines about shootings inside sanctuaries, 71% of homicides occurred outdoors (in parking, courtyards or stairs) when people gathered or left.

In two thirds of the cases, it was not clear if the aggressor had any connection with the congregation. However, most other cases involved aggressors with clear links, including members, family, shepherds and employees. In dozen of cases, domestic disputes extended to places of worship. Since services are routine and predictable meetings, they can become focuses of private conflicts that end in deaths.

The attacks occurred throughout the country, but concentrated in the south. The region tends to have more frequent assistance to more lax religious and laws of firearms, a combination that helps explain overrepresentation in the south, although no region is immune.

What religions are affected?

97% of mortal incidents occurred in Christian churches, reflecting the number of churches in the United States.

However, by adjusting the number of congregations, the data underlines the vulnerability of other religions to selective violence. The places of worship, community centers and Jewish and Muslims cemeteries, for example, face frequent threats and vandalism.

Only an incident in a Gurdwara (a SIJ temple) appears in the data set. However, due to its shortage in the US, that single case translates into the highest rate for any religious tradition, once the total number of congregations is considered. There were also stabbing or shootings in six synagogues and Jewish community centers, which suggests a disproportionate risk.

Two incidents involved mosques. However, this contrasts with the data that show high levels of Islamophobia in the US, which suggests that most of the violence against Muslims could occur in other environments.

Why is this research important?

Homicides in places of worship are still rare, but when they occur, firearms make them more lethal. Among the victims are shepherds, rabbis, magnets, monks, parishioners, staff and children.

The figures cannot capture the pain of families in Grand Blanc or Minneapolis, nor the trauma that survivors load. But they can reveal patterns that support the conversations about safety and prevention.

The places of worship are destined to be open spaces of peace and refuge. The challenge is to balance this superior purpose with practical security. When studying these past tragedies, Americans can prepare better for the future and prevent more families from suffering the anguish of recent weeks.

*James Densley He is a professor of Criminal Justice, Metropolitan State University; Jillian Peterson Professor of Criminal Justice, University of Hamline

This text was originally published in The Conversation

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