Along with delegates from around the world, I will address the United Nations COP30 climate summit in the Brazilian Amazon city of Belém. Like many others, I’m not sure what to expect.
This year, the summit faces perhaps the biggest headwinds of any in recent history. In the United States, the Trump administration has slashed climate science, canceled renewable projects, expanded fossil fuel extraction, and abandoned the Paris Agreement (again). Trump’s efforts to paralyze climate action caused extreme geopolitical turbulence, overshadowing the world’s main forum for coordinating climate action even as the problem worsens.
Last year, average global warming exceeded 1.5°C for the first time. Costly climate disasters are multiplying, with severe heatwaves, fires and floods affecting most continents this year.
Climate conversations are never easy. Each nation wants contributions and many interests collide. Petrostates and big fossil fuel exporters want to keep up extraction, while Pacific states desperately watch the seas rise. But in the absence of a global government leading climate policy, these imperfect conversations remain the best option for coordinating commitment to meaningful action.
Here’s what to keep an eye on this year.
A smaller COP than usual?
A persistent criticism of the annual climate summits is that they became too big and unwieldy, looking more like a trade fair and playground for fossil fuel lobbyists than an effective forum for multilateral diplomacy and action on climate change. One solution is to deliberately make these conversations smaller.
The Belém conference may end up having a smaller number of delegates, although not so much by design as because of logistical headaches.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva backed the decision to invite the world to the Amazon to show how vital the massive rainforest is as a carbon sink. But Belém’s remote location on the northeast coast, limited infrastructure and a shortage of hotels have caused prices to skyrocket, putting the conference out of reach for smaller nations, including some of the most vulnerable. These limitations could undermine the inclusive “Mutirão” (collective effort on climate change) sought by the organizers.
Read more: Latin America arrives at COP30 with the challenge of turning commitments into action
show me the money
Climate finance is a perennial topic at COP meetings. These financing pledges from rich countries are intended to help poorer countries reduce emissions, adapt to climate change, or recover from climate disasters. Poorer countries have long called for more funding, given that rich countries did much more damage to the climate.
At COP29 held in Baku, Azerbaijan, last year, a new climate finance target of US$300 billion was set for developed countries to raise annually by 2035, with the aim of reaching US$1.3 trillion in financing from both government and private sources over the same period.
To achieve the second objective, the negotiators drew up a “Baku to Belém” roadmap. Details will be finalized at COP30. But with the United States moving away from climate action and the European Union wavering, many eyes will be on China and whether it will fill the climate leadership vacuum left by developed countries. The EU has just reached an agreement on an emissions reduction target for 2040 and an “indicative” cut for 2035.
Climate finance will be the priority for many countries as worsening disasters such as Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica and Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines demonstrate once again the enormous human and financial cost of climate change.
The latest UN assessment indicates that the need for this funding is outstripping flows by 12 to 14 times. In Belém, the poorest countries hope to reach an agreement on greater financing and support for adaptation. Work on a global set of indicators to track progress on adaptation, including financing, will be key.
Brazilian organizers hope to bring countries together around another flagship funding initiative to be launched at COP30. The Forever Rainforest Fund would compensate countries for preserving rainforests, with 20% of the funds going to indigenous peoples and local communities who protect rainforests on their lands. If lifted, this fund could offer a breakthrough in the fight against deforestation by shifting economics in favor of conservation and protecting a lot of carbon.
Climate commitments for 2035
Belém was supposed to be a celebration of ambitious new emissions pledges that would keep alive the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping warming at 1.5°C. Nations were originally due to submit their 2035 pledges (formally known as Nationally Determined Contributions) in February, with an extension until September after 95 percent of countries missed the deadline.
When the promises finally came in September, they were very disappointing. Only half of global emissions were covered by a 2035 commitment, meaning the remaining emissions gap could be very significant. Australia is committed to reducing 2005 emissions levels by between 62 and 70%.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t progress. A new UN report suggests countries are bending the downward curve on emissions, but at a much slower pace than necessary.
How negotiators handle this emissions gap will be a litmus test of whether countries are taking their Paris Agreement obligations seriously.
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Rise of the courts
Even as some countries move away from climate action, courts are increasingly intervening. This year, the International Court of Justice issued an enthusiastic advisory opinion on States’ climate obligations under international law, including that national targets must make an adequate contribution to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature target. The court warned that failure to take “appropriate measures” to safeguard the climate system from fossil fuel emissions, including projects carried out by private corporations, may be “an internationally wrongful act.” That is, they could attract international responsibility.
It will be interesting to see how this ruling affects negotiating positions at COP30 on phasing out fossil fuels. At COP28 in 2023, nations promised to begin “moving away from fossil fuels in energy systems.” If countries do not move forward with elimination, accountability could be done through the courts. A new ruling in France found that big oil and gas companies’ net-zero targets amount to greenwashing, while lawsuits aimed at holding big carbon polluters accountable for the climate damage caused by their emissions are in progress.
An Australia/Pacific COP?
A big question to be resolved is whether Australia’s long-standing bid to host next year’s COP in Adelaide will be lifted. The bid to co-host COP31 with Pacific nations has strong international support, but rival bidder Turkey has not withdrawn.
If no consensus is reached at COP30, the host city would return to Bonn in Germany, where the UN climate secretariat is located.
Unknown result
As climate change worsens, these long, intense meetings may not seem like a solution. But despite the headwinds and setbacks, they are essential. The world has made progress on climate change since 2015, due in large part to the Paris Agreement. What is needed now on its tenth anniversary is a reinfusion of vigor to get the job done.
*Jacqueline Peel is a Professor of Law at the University of Melbourne.
This article was originally published on The Conversation/Reuters
