Two years ago, countries around the world set the goal of “reducing the use of fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair, orderly and equitable manner.” The plan included tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030, important steps to curb climate change, as the energy sector accounts for about 75% of the global carbon dioxide emissions that are warming the planet.
The world is making progress: more than 90% of the new energy capacity added in 2024 came from renewable energy sources, and 2025 saw similar growth.
However, fossil fuel production also continues to expand. The United States, the world’s leading producer of oil and natural gas, is now aggressively pressuring countries to continue buying and burning fossil fuels.
The energy transition was not meant to be a central issue when world leaders and negotiators met at the 2025 United Nations climate summit, COP30, in November in Belém, Brazil. But it took center stage from start to finish, focusing attention on the ongoing geopolitical energy debate and the risks at stake.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva began the conference by calling for the creation of a formal roadmap, essentially a strategic process that countries could participate in to “overcome dependence on fossil fuels.” This would involve moving the global decision to abandon fossil fuels from words to actions.
More than 80 countries supported the idea, from vulnerable small island nations like Vanuatu, which are losing land and lives to rising sea levels and more intense storms, to countries like Kenya, which sees business opportunities in clean energy, and Australia, a major fossil fuel-producing country.
The opposition, led by the oil and gas producing countries of the Arab Group, avoided any mention of a “roadmap” energy transition plan in the final climate conference agreement, but its supporters are pressing ahead.
I was in Belém for COP30 and am following developments closely as a former special climate envoy and head of delegation for Germany, and a senior fellow at the Fletcher School at Tufts University.
The controversy over whether there should be a roadmap shows how hard countries that rely on fossil fuels are working to slow the transition, and how others are positioning themselves to benefit from renewable energy growth. And it is a key area to watch in 2026.
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The battle between electrostates and petrostates
Brazilian diplomat and COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago has pledged to lead an effort in 2026 to create two roadmaps: one to halt and reverse deforestation and another to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair, orderly and equitable manner.
It is not yet clear what these roadmaps will look like. They are likely to focus on a process for countries to discuss and debate how to reverse deforestation and phase out fossil fuels.
In the coming months, Corrêa plans to convene high-level meetings between world leaders, including fossil fuel producers and consumers, international organizations, industries, workers, academics and advocacy groups.
For the roadmap to be accepted and useful, the process will need to address global market issues of supply and demand, as well as equity. For example, in some fossil fuel-producing countries, revenue from oil, gas or coal is the main source of income. What could the future be for countries that need to diversify their economies?
Nigeria is an interesting case study to analyze this issue.
Oil exports consistently account for the majority of Nigeria’s revenue, accounting for between 80% and over 90% of total government and foreign exchange earnings. At the same time, approximately 39% of the Nigerian population does not have access to electricity, representing the largest proportion of people without electricity of any nation. Furthermore, Nigeria has abundant, largely untapped, renewable energy resources across the country: solar, hydroelectric, geothermal and wind, offering new opportunities.
Continue reading: Trump considers cutting billions in funding for clean energy projects
What a roadmap could look like
In Belém, representatives discussed the creation of a science-based roadmap aligned with the Paris climate agreement, which would include various pathways to achieve a just transition for regions dependent on fossil fuels.
Brazil and Norway could be inspired to help fossil fuel-producing countries transition to cleaner energy.
In Brazil, Lula asked his ministries to draw up guidelines to develop a roadmap to gradually reduce Brazil’s dependence on fossil fuels and to find a way to finance the changes.
His decree specifically mentions the creation of an energy transition fund, which could be financed with government revenues from oil and gas exploration. While Brazil supports moving away from fossil fuels, it remains a major oil producer and recently approved new exploratory drilling near the mouth of the Amazon River.
Norway, a major oil and gas producer, is establishing a formal transition commission to study and plan the transition of its economy away from fossil fuels, focusing especially on how Norway’s workforce and natural resources can be used more effectively to create new and different jobs.
Both countries are just getting started, but their work could guide other countries and inform a global roadmap process.
The European Union implemented a series of policies and laws aimed at reducing the demand for fossil fuels. It aims for 42.5% of its energy to come from renewable sources by 2030. And its EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which progressively reduces the emissions that companies can emit, will soon be expanded to cover housing and transport.
The Emissions Trading Scheme already includes power generation, energy-intensive industry and civil aviation.
Also read: Brazil will host the World Summit on Energy Transition (WSoET)
Future growth of fossil fuels and renewable energy
In the US, the Trump administration has made clear, through its policies and diplomacy, that it is pursuing the opposite approach: maintaining fossil fuels as the main source of energy for decades to come.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) still expects renewables to grow faster than any other major energy source in all future scenarios, as their lower costs make them an attractive option in many countries. Globally, the agency predicts that investment in renewable energy in 2025 will double that of fossil fuels.
At the same time, however, investments in fossil fuels are also increasing due to rapid growth in energy demand.
The IEA World Energy Outlook report outlined a surge in new financing for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects in 2025. It now forecasts a 50% increase in global LNG supply by 2030, about half of this coming from the United States. However, the report notes that doubts still remain about the fate of the new LNG once produced.
What to pay attention to
Dialogue on the Belém roadmap and how it balances countries’ needs will influence the global ability to manage climate change.
Corrêa plans to report on his progress at the next annual UN climate conference, COP31, in late 2026. The conference will be hosted by Turkey, but Australia, which supported the call for a roadmap, will lead the negotiations.
With more time to debate and prepare, COP31 could boost the transition away from fossil fuels and their reintegration into global negotiations.
*Jennifer Morgan She is a senior fellow at the Center for International Environment and Resources Policy and the Climate Policy Laboratory at Tufts University.
This text was originally published in The Conversation
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