By Santiago F. Arroyo Seguedo*
It is fully confirmed, in fact, that Mr. Donald Trump is now the elected president of the United States of America, this hand in hand with a clear objective in terms of economy, health and public safety: ending the illegal narcotics trade. and their financial networks.
This last point becomes vitally relevant in the bilateral energy market, especially in the field of fuels and the actions that the White House will undertake starting in January 2025, since according to President-elect Trump himself and some of his already confirmed officials, There is a possibility that Mexican organized crime networks and their financial appendages will be classified as terrorist organizations, deriving an avalanche of legal, economic and diplomatic consequences.
But what do Mexican fuel companies have to do with the above? The answer, beyond being simple, becomes complex but forceful.
Given the eventual declaration of Mexican criminal cartels as terrorist organizations, the scenario of a physical intervention by military or security assets in national territory, as happened in Colombia in the 1990s, is very far away. Contrary to this, the new weapons are technology, financial algorithms and currency tracking via the Treasury Department and its agencies, such as the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) or the Office of Financial Intelligence; who, using specially designed methodologies, will seek to identify the financing networks of these organizations through risk factors, which can range from commercial operations to journalistic publications, which can trigger investigations by these offices and put pressure (or not) on their counterparts. Mexicans to exercise actions.
And, this is where the journalistic reports on the diversity of names of people and business names in the fuel sector that, at least in a very presumptive way, could be related to the financial scaffolding of criminal organizations of Mexican origin become enormously relevant. Newspaper articles on this topic, which are not few and which have been more recurrent in the last 10 years, put on the table the possibility of detonating a series of actions that put the righteous and sinners alike in check, under the principle of “ beyond a reasonable doubt.”
Wow, the repercussions are very broad and complex, especially since bilateral trade relations in fuels represent more than 70% of the Mexican fuel market and, in turn, Mexico is the main recipient of exports of refined products of US origin. Added to this, the fact that President-elect Trump has a series of commitments to strengthen the North American oil and gas sector above renewable energies. Being elements that add important challenges for both nations in the fight against cartels that is to come.
However, the Mexican and American gas sector (none is exempt from being investigated by financial intelligence offices) must include in their processes robust protection schemes against money laundering, as well as regulatory compliance, since, up to a insignificant invoice stamped in favor of some person or company being investigated, can trigger a bad time.
In short, the Trump effect and his objective of “Make America Great Again” on the fuel market would be an important sieve that generates positive effects in limiting the famous “huachicol”, such as setting the precedent to make the financial networks of criminal organizations on both sides of the border.
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*Santiago F. Arroyo Seguedo is director of Ursus Energy and specialist in energy and hydrocarbon regulation.
The opinions expressed are solely the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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