Financial News

Top seeds dominate March Madness in NIL, transfer era

3 April 2025

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman, which brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the worlds of sports business and media. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox. We don’t know for sure if the 2025 NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournament will mark a turning point in college sports, but logic suggests NIL payments and the transfer portal may be killing March Madness. OK, maybe “killing” is a bit strong. But only a bit, IMHO. For the second time ever (the first was 2008), all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the men’s Final Four. The women’s tournament nearly accomplished the same feat – with three of the top four seeds making the Final Four. Only No. 2 seed and perennial powerhouse UConn prevented all eight No. 1 seeds from advancing, and UConn only made it by defeating No. 1 seed USC in the Elite Eight, with the Trojans playing the game without their star, JuJu Watkins . It’s only one tournament. Maybe it’s a fluke. But the power schools consistently advanced in both tournaments this year – not just at the end. The men’s tournament, which frequently features several Cinderella schools, was particularly notable. Other than No. 10 seed Arkansas, every Sweet 16 men’s team was seeded sixth or higher. The favorites went 12-0 in the subsequent Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games. There’s a reason for all of this. NIL (name, image and likeness) payments and the transfer portal are pushing the best college players to the biggest programs. They have the most money to spend on players. The Wall Street Journal has a good story this week about the millions funneling into Duke’s basketball program. More than 1,000 men’s college basketball players have already entered the portal since it opened on March 24. Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo called the frenzied player movement “chaos” last week after his team advanced to the Sweet 16. Monday will be a big day in the history of the NCAA. That’s when the final approval hearing for the House v. NCAA settlement has been scheduled. As Charleston’s The Post and Courier reports , “if approved, about 400,000 student-athletes will be paid approximately $2.8 billion in retrospective damages for lost NIL revenue from 2016 to present.” If the settlement is approved, that’s even more money for college players – which is expected to supercharge the transfer portal. Mid-major Oakland’s head coach Greg Kampe told Yahoo Sports last week it’s clearly more difficult to make a deep NCAA tournament run now than it was five years ago. “That’s a simple answer. Yes. Yes, it is,” Kampe said. The question then becomes, “Do we care?” The Ringer’s Bill Simmons said he doesn’t mind watching the top schools face off because he’s more interested in the quality of play – which improves when the best teams play each other. “I like watching really good basketball teams. I’m a snob. I like watching good sporting events and good teams,” Simmons said on his podcast this week. I’ll take the other side of this argument. What makes March Madness great is the madness. Historically, it’s been the only major sports tournament in the country where there’s a chance David can beat Goliath. If you’re a March Madness fan, what are the moments you remember from the NCAA tournament decades later? Many of them are undoubtedly games when the underdog pulled off the stunning upset – UMBC beating Virginia in 2018; George Mason’s unbelievable Final Four run in 2006; Valparaiso’s 1998 win over Ole Miss; Princeton upsetting UCLA in 1996, etc. Every other significant sports tournament allows for great teams playing great teams. What makes March Madness special is it’s the one tournament that **doesn’t.** It’s the one tournament where Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery can scream about a school you’ve never heard of shocking the world. CNBC Sport always follows the money, and TV ratings may decide the future of March Madness. It’s quite possible that ratings will tick higher with the early elimination of Cinderella schools. Power schools have large fan bases. Early-round ratings this year are as high as they’ve been since 1993. So it may take a concerted fan effort – or pushback from annoyed coaches who are losing all their hard-earned recruits to the transfer portal – to formulate guardrails that keep the madness in March Madness. One tournament like 2025 is fine. But if this year becomes the norm, sports fans will lose something very special. Thanks to everyone who watched our debut weekend show, “CNBC Sport: On The Record” on CNBC Saturday at 3 p.m. ET. Our next two episodes are out this weekend – same bat-time, same bat-channel . Some of the interviews include ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith , New York Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns , and famed horse racing trainer Bob Baffert . Those will air Saturday at 3 p.m. ET and 3:30 pm ET. On the record With Los Angeles Clippers President and CEO of Halo Sports and Entertainment Gillian Zucker … The Los Angeles Clippers were supposed to take a step backward this season. Instead, the team is well above .500 and fighting for one of the top six seeds in the Western Conference. Still, if the Clippers really want to start making money, they need to advance deep in the playoffs. That’s according to Gillian Zucker, the team’s president and CEO of Halo Sports and Entertainment, and this week’s On The Record guest. “How far you go in the playoffs … has a pretty big impact on EBITDA,” Zucker said in our interview. “Unfortunately, we didn’t go as far as we would have liked to [last year].” The Clippers lost in the first round last year to the eventual Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks, four games to two. The club was one of two teams (the Milwaukee Bucks was the other) last season to have negative EBITDA , according to CNBC’s Michael Ozanian . That’s fine when your owner, Steve Ballmer , is one of the 10 wealthiest men in the world, according to Forbes . Still, the biggest impact on the Clippers last year was one-time expenses related to the Intuit Dome, the team’s $2 billion stadium that opened this season. Previously, the Clippers were sharing Crypto.com Arena with the L.A. Lakers. Those charges should fall off this season, and Zucker predicts a return to profitability. “You’re going to see those dramatically shift now that we’re in a building that we own rather than being a renter,” Zucker said. “You’re going to see things like sponsorship numbers triple. So you’re going to see a lot of differentiation between those numbers last year and the numbers this year.” Zucker discussed working closely with Ballmer (“the greatest boss in the world”) and how Apple executive Eddie Cue helped enhance technology that has dramatically increased the Clippers concessions sales by using Apple Pay instead of cashiers. The rare Microsoft-Apple collaboration! Watch the entire interview – it’s a good one – here, or listen to it here and follow the CNBC Sport podcast if you prefer the audio version. CNBC Sport highlight reel The best of CNBC Sport from the past week: CNBC’s Julia Boorstin spoke with Emma Hayes , the head coach of the U.S. women’s national soccer team. Hayes discussed the impact of sports on life, improving coach education through the female lens, equal pay and many other issues in not just soccer but all of women’s sports. You can see the full 16-minute interview here . CNBC’s Jess Golden wrapped up the highlights , including Hayes’ interest in addressing the reasons why an increasing number of girls are dropping out of sports when they hit puberty. TKO Group’s UFC has signed a wide-ranging, multimillion-dollar, multiple-year sponsorship deal with Meta. It brings UFC CEO Dana White and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg even closer together. White joined Meta’s board in January. CNBC Sport was first with all the details, including an exclusive interview with Grant Norris-Jones , TKO’s head of global partnerships, who helped spearhead the deal. Speaking of L.A., the city pulled off a rare feat in 1984 – it turned a profit on the Summer Olympics. The City of Angels is bringing back the games in 2028, and making money won’t be as easy. CNBC’s Sydney Cella and NBC’s Hannah Hur have the story . A reminder that CNBC Sport is coming to Tampa this weekend for our event on women’s basketball, tied to the Final Four. If you’re interested in attending, please request an invitation here . The big number: $96 billion Nike’s market capitalization has fallen below $100 billion, as of Wednesday’s close, after the company warned last month that sales will drop by a double-digit percentage in the current quarter . The company cited “geopolitical dynamics, new tariffs, volatile foreign exchange rates, tax regulations” and “consumer confidence” uncertainty. President Trump’s announcement Wednesday that the U.S. is placing 46% tariffs on Vietnam , where about 25% of Nike shoes are manufactured, probably won’t help. Nike shares dropped after market close yesterday after closing just below $65 a share. To put this in some context, in November 2021, shares closed at more than $175. Nike’s market capitalization was about $280 billion at its peak. In January 2022, Guggenheim named Nike its “best idea” as an investment when its market valuation was more than $260 billion. Hope you didn’t listen! By the end of 2022, Nike had fallen to $118 a share. After spiking a tad higher in the spring of 2023, shares have been in a near freefall. Quote of the week “I would like to thank President Donald J. Trump and his administration, especially Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr.” — New York Yankees President Randy Levine made sure to thank U.S. President Donald Trump and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr in the second paragraph of his statement this week announcing YES Network, the Yankees’ regional sports network, had avoided a blackout with Comcast, the largest U.S. cable provider (and parent company of CNBC, at least for a little while longer ). Earlier this week, Carr chimed in on X that he encouraged “a quick and favorable resolution for the benefit of everyone.” The FCC has no involvement at all in these types of carriage disputes, but, as with much of corporate America these days, it’s the optics. I’m told the deal is a pure extension of the existing arrangement between Comcast and YES. In other words, YES doesn’t get relegated to Comcast’s growing sports tier, but Comcast doesn’t have to pay any more money than it’s already paying. The deal kicks the can down the road on what could eventually be a protracted fight. While YES Network also carries Brooklyn Nets games after the MLB season concludes, they’re little watched by Comcast’s largely New Jersey-based subscribers relative to the Yankees. That would make potentially dropping YES (if it refuses to be tiered) much more palatable for Comcast. From what I’ve been told, YES has no intention of being moved to a tier. SNY, the Mets’ RSN, which Comcast partially owns, also isn’t tiered by Comcast, and that deal isn’t up for a while. Both sides have decided it’s not worth having this fight now. That may be for two reasons. First, the Yankees should be good this year, especially with their torpedo bats. (NB: I am a torpedo bat skeptic and would guess this will be a non-story by the end of the season). Second, Comcast has little interest in drawing the ire of the Trump administration right now as it plans to spin out most of its cable networks (including CNBC) and potentially figure out its next major acquisition. Around the league The NHL has renewed its Canadian media rights deal with Rogers Communications. As Sportico first reported , the deal is 12 years worth $11 billion CAD ($7.7 billion USD). That’s a 2x increase on the current rights deal. Rogers is the NHL’s incumbent Canadian partner, although it sublicenses Monday games to Amazon. The NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves and the WNBA’s Minnesota Lynx owner Glen Taylor has finally agreed to sell both teams to former Walmart executive Marc Lore and former MLB star Alex Rodriguez, ESPN first reported . This was a deal originally reached in 2021 for $1.5 billion that’s been caught up in a legal dispute after Taylor claimed the duo breached terms of the sale agreement by missing a deadline to finalize the deal. Arbitrators ruled in favor of Lore and A-Rod earlier this year. The new sale price will be … the same price: $1.5 billion. Given how much major sports teams have increased in value since 2021, (see: The Boston Celtics selling for $6.1 billion), that’s a steal for Lore and A-Rod. CNBC has the Timberwolves valued at $3.25 billion. NFL owners congregated in Palm Beach, Florida this week for the league’s annual meeting. Several rule changes have been approved, including a long overdue overtime change that will allow both teams to possess the ball. Replay assist will also be expanded to review flagged personal foul penalties. One rule that was considered but didn’t go through: banning the so-called tush push quarterback sneak perfected by the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. On the business side, Sunday games can now be flexed to Amazon’s “Thursday Night Football” with just 21 days notice to give better games a primetime slot. The old rule mandated 28 days notice. The NFL is interested in developing a new men’s and women’s professional flag football league. Ten groups have submitted bids to the NFL to be investors, sources told ESPN . Bloomberg reported some of the potential investors are TKO Group, Marc Lasry ‘s Avenue Capital Group, and partners Ice Cube and Jeff Kwatinetz. That’s all for this week. Enjoy the charred remnants of what was once March Madness. And thank you FCC Chairman Brendan Carr and President Trump. – Alex

Cooper Flagg #2 of the Duke Blue Devils moves the ball against the Baylor Bears during the second round of the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament held at Lenovo Center on March 23, 2025 in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Grant Halverson | NCAA Photos | Getty Images

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport newsletter with Alex Sherman, which brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the worlds of sports business and media. Sign up to receive future editions, straight to your inbox.

We don’t know for sure if the 2025 NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournament will mark a turning point in college sports, but logic suggests NIL payments and the transfer portal may be killing March Madness.

OK, maybe “killing” is a bit strong. But only a bit, IMHO.

For the second time ever (the first was 2008), all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the men’s Final Four. The women’s tournament nearly accomplished the same feat – with three of the top four seeds making the Final Four. Only No. 2 seed and perennial powerhouse UConn prevented all eight No. 1 seeds from advancing, and UConn only made it by defeating No. 1 seed USC in the Elite Eight, with the Trojans playing the game without their star, JuJu Watkins.

It’s only one tournament. Maybe it’s a fluke. But the power schools consistently advanced in both tournaments this year – not just at the end. The men’s tournament, which frequently features several Cinderella schools, was particularly notable. Other than No. 10 seed Arkansas, every Sweet 16 men’s team was seeded sixth or higher. The favorites went 12-0 in the subsequent Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games.

There’s a reason for all of this. NIL (name, image and likeness) payments and the transfer portal are pushing the best college players to the biggest programs. They have the most money to spend on players. The Wall Street Journal has a good story this week about the millions funneling into Duke’s basketball program.

More than 1,000 men’s college basketball players have already entered the portal since it opened on March 24. Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo called the frenzied player movement “chaos” last week after his team advanced to the Sweet 16.

Monday will be a big day in the history of the NCAA. That’s when the final approval hearing for the House v. NCAA settlement has been scheduled. As Charleston’s The Post and Courier reports, “if approved, about 400,000 student-athletes will be paid approximately $2.8 billion in retrospective damages for lost NIL revenue from 2016 to present.”

If the settlement is approved, that’s even more money for college players – which is expected to supercharge the transfer portal.

Mid-major Oakland’s head coach Greg Kampe told Yahoo Sports last week it’s clearly more difficult to make a deep NCAA tournament run now than it was five years ago.

“That’s a simple answer. Yes. Yes, it is,” Kampe said.

The question then becomes, “Do we care?” The Ringer’s Bill Simmons said he doesn’t mind watching the top schools face off because he’s more interested in the quality of play – which improves when the best teams play each other.

“I like watching really good basketball teams. I’m a snob. I like watching good sporting events and good teams,” Simmons said on his podcast this week.

I’ll take the other side of this argument. What makes March Madness great is the madness. Historically, it’s been the only major sports tournament in the country where there’s a chance David can beat Goliath.

If you’re a March Madness fan, what are the moments you remember from the NCAA tournament decades later? Many of them are undoubtedly games when the underdog pulled off the stunning upset – UMBC beating Virginia in 2018; George Mason’s unbelievable Final Four run in 2006; Valparaiso’s 1998 win over Ole Miss; Princeton upsetting UCLA in 1996, etc.

Every other significant sports tournament allows for great teams playing great teams. What makes March Madness special is it’s the one tournament that **doesn’t.** It’s the one tournament where Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery can scream about a school you’ve never heard of shocking the world.

CNBC Sport always follows the money, and TV ratings may decide the future of March Madness. It’s quite possible that ratings will tick higher with the early elimination of Cinderella schools. Power schools have large fan bases. Early-round ratings this year are as high as they’ve been since 1993.

So it may take a concerted fan effort – or pushback from annoyed coaches who are losing all their hard-earned recruits to the transfer portal – to formulate guardrails that keep the madness in March Madness.

One tournament like 2025 is fine. But if this year becomes the norm, sports fans will lose something very special.

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Thanks to everyone who watched our debut weekend show, “CNBC Sport: On The Record” on CNBC Saturday at 3 p.m. ET. Our next two episodes are out this weekend – same bat-time, same bat-channel. Some of the interviews include ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, New York Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns, and famed horse racing trainer Bob Baffert. Those will air Saturday at 3 p.m. ET and 3:30 pm ET.

On the record

With Los Angeles Clippers President and CEO of Halo Sports and Entertainment Gillian Zucker …

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On the record

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