The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) assured that the results of the national economy are solid and are driven by domestic demand.
In the third quarter of 2024, Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1% compared to the previous quarter and 1.5% at an annual rate, according to preliminary figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) adjusted for seasonality published this Wednesday.
“The data that just came out is actually quite solid, quite good. There is a recovery after some quarters of slow expansion,” said the Undersecretary of Finance and Public Credit, Edgar Amador Zamora, at a press conference on public finances for the third quarter of 2024.
The head of the Economic Planning Unit of the SHCP, Rodrigo Mariscal, added that the results of the economy represent something that was already expected since the agency made the growth estimates for this year, whose projections point to a range between 2.5% and 3.5%.
“Basically, the first half (of the year) we saw supply shocks that limited the productive capacity of economic activity and put pressure on prices to a certain extent. That is in line with what we anticipated, with our estimates, and today’s data is practically in line with what we anticipated. For us it was a good fact, it was not surprising; In fact, we were already anticipating good growth due to this dissipation of supply shocks,” he said.
Inegi figures showed that the 1% quarterly GDP growth was the highest since the second quarter of 2022, while the 1.5% annual increase was the highest in the last two quarters.
In this regard, the Treasury assured that domestic demand remained the pillar of economic growth, since on the average from January to July, private consumption increased 3.8% annually, thus achieving four years of continuous growth above its historical average. , in line with the positive performance of consumer confidence and the increase in real wages.
Given the economic growth projections for Mexico that both international organizations and analysts have reduced and that point to 1.5%, Mariscal explained that for that level to be achieved in 2024, GDP would necessarily have to fall by approximately 0.2% in the fourth quarter.
“Right now the external and internal conditions do not give us a perspective or anything that anticipates that there will be a contraction next quarter, it seems difficult. Even if we did not grow, the economy already has a growth base of around 1.4 or 1.5%, for that 1.5% to occur (in 2024) the GDP would have to fall and that could be difficult and perhaps what we would see is that some Analysts would have to adjust their forecasts,” he noted.
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