Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and members of his party running for the U.S. Senate blame immigrants for rising housing costs, but a review of economic data and independent research suggests their effect is limited.
In making this argument, former President Trump and his allies are using the cost of housing, one of the top economic concerns of American voters, as a reason to crack down on immigration, one of the central issues of his campaign.
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll in August, affordable housing was registered voters’ second concern about the U.S. economy. One in three voters cited the cost of housing, second only to the 56% who cited concern about income lagging behind inflation.
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Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump’s Democratic rival in the November 5 election, has placed housing at the center of her economic speech to voters. He plans to spur construction and reduce costs for renters and buyers, largely through tax incentives.
Immigration “is driving up housing costs,” Trump said at a rally in the battleground state of Arizona in late September, standing in front of a backdrop that read: “Make housing affordable again.” ”.
Speaking in Tucson, Trump pointed to the number of immigrants who have entered the United States in recent years compared to the number of homes built, two statistics that Kari Lake, the Republican Senate candidate in that state, also used as evidence of his argument.
In Wisconsin, Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde told a local media outlet that closing the border would ease economic pain points.
Limited link, according to academics
Scholars who study the intersection between immigration and housing say that the influx of immigrants has little effect on prices: a 1% increase in a city’s population typically raises rents and housing prices by a corresponding 1%. .
Overall consumer prices have risen 21% since 2020, according to federal data. At the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Urban Economics Laboratory, director Albert Saiz said his research indicates that rising prices have been the main driver of housing values and rents, followed by the rise of remote work.
The effect of immigration lags behind these factors, he said.
“From a quantitative point of view, I don’t think it’s even close to explaining what has happened,” Saiz said. “It is clear that the other issues are more important.”
Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the economists’ findings.
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“The idea that immigrants are fueling a nationwide housing shortage comes from a false impression in economics that there are a fixed number of houses,” said Julia Gelatt of the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute.
“Immigrants fill the homes, but since immigrants work at a high rate in construction and remodeling, they also contribute to increasing the supply of housing,” he said.
With information from Reuters
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