The fiscal and protectionist policies announced by the virtual president of the United States, Donald Trump, during his campaign, could also end up benefiting the Mexican economy, so considered Miriam Acuña, analyst at Grupo Bursátil Mexicano (GBM).
The specialist explained that a tax reduction for companies, from 21 to 15% and greater support for companies in the US, would boost the development of the US economy between 2025 and 2026 and due to the connection between both neighboring countries, the Mexican GDP would benefit too.
“This possible greater growth of the United States economy in the short term could generate certain benefits for the Mexican economy,” said Acuña.
“We know that economies are closely related,” he added.
He also explained that in the past, the Trump government started a trade war against China, which resulted in Mexico becoming the United States’ main trading partner in 2024, which is why he noted that this scenario could be repeated in the new administration. of the republican.
“We think that this increase in tariffs against China could cause the nearshoring case to be modified in favor of Mexico, which has benefited from the substitution of Chinese imports,” he considered.
Acuña commented that Mexico is currently supplying goods to the United States, especially products in which China lost share.
“Starting this year and obviously also supported by the issue of the pandemic, the disruption in supply chains and so on, Mexico positioned itself as a key player for trade with the United States,” said the specialist.
However, the analyst commented that this forecast will depend on whether or not the Trump administration carries out the threats against Mexico, which include a 25% tariff on all US imports of Mexican origin in the event that Claudia’s administration Sheinbaum does not guarantee the immigration conditions of the 47th US president.
Benefited sectors
Faced with nearshoring that could take off in the medium term in Mexico, Miriam Acuña commented that there are certain sectors that can catapult its growth.
Among them are the cement, consumer, mining, banking and industrial industries.
However, he emphasized that everything will depend on the policies that the New York Republican employs.
On the other hand, this morning the president of the Association of Banks of Mexico (ABM), Julio Carranza, said that the banks that operate in the country are ready to grant loans in the face of a nearshoring scenario.
He pointed out that there are more than 1.2 trillion pesos available to catapult micro and small business, businesses that would benefit the most from nearshoring.
Regarding Trump’s victory, Carranza commented that there is no fear about the New Yorker’s policies, since the trade rules between both countries have to be respected.
“One thing is what he said in the campaign and another is the reality,” said the president of the association.
Donald Trump is virtual president of the United States and will take office next January. The candidate was elected after collecting 270 votes from the state electoral colleges of the neighboring country to the north.
Follow information about business and current events in Forbes Mexico
Do you like to get informed through Google News? Follow our Showcase to have the best stories
