An early American intelligence report found that Iran’s nuclear program was delayed only a few months after US attacks, contradicting President Donald Trump’s claims that it was “totally destroyed”, while Vice President JD Vance, military officials and nuclear control agencies suggest that the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities is still unfeeding.
Key data
An intelligence report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency on Monday suggests that Iran’s nuclear program was delayed less six months, several anonymous officials familiar with the evaluation told several media, and an official told the New York Times that US attacks closed the tickets to two enrichment facilities but “they did not collapse their underground buildings.”
The White House Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, had said on Monday at ABC News that the United States was “sure” that Iran’s nuclear program was “complete and totally destroyed”, noting that there was a “high degree of confidence” in which the places where US attacks took place were where Iran stored their enriched uranium and that they will go “no longer (it has) the ability to threaten the world.”
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, seemed to refute those statements in a statement early Monday by suggesting that the agency would need to verify damage to Iran’s fordow underground installation, even if the uranium enrichment rooms of the site were affected, although he pointed out that US attacks probably caused “very significant” damage.
On Sunday, hours after the mission, the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, and the head of the Joint Chiefs, General Dan Caine, said that an evaluation of the damage to the nuclear facilities of Iran “was still pending”, and Caine said it was “too soon to comment on what may or may not be there yet.”
Vance, in an interview with ABC on Sunday, suggested that American attacks only delayed Iran’s potential to turn their uranium reserves into weapons and said that the United States “will work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel.”
Jeffrey Lewis, a non -proliferation professor at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey, wrote in X that he was not “impressed” by US attacks and cited satellite images of attacks, stating that the United States “did not attacked significant elements of nuclear materials and the Iran production infrastructure.”
What has Trump said about US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities?
“The sites that we attacked in Iran were totally destroyed, and everyone knows it,” Trump wrote in Truth Social on Monday, refuting the “false news” that, according to him, “would say something different to try to degrade, as much as possible, and even they say they were ‘quite destroyed!” Trump said on Saturday that the nuclear enrichment facilities of Iran were “complete and totally destroyed,” The night that Iran’s nuclear site in Fordow suffered “monumental damage.”
How big is the Uranium Reserve of Iran?
Iran stored about 400 kilograms (approximately 881 pounds) of 60% enriched uranium, an enrichment close to 90% for military use, according to Grossi. It is not clear if the Uranium reserves of Iran are still so great, Grossi said, adding that the IEA inspectors finally verified the Iranian reserves a few days before the start of the conflict between Iran and Israel earlier this month.
Could they rebuild their uranium reserves?
Iran may be able to rebuild its nuclear program, but the development schedule would depend on the magnitude of the damage caused to its nuclear facilities, according to the centers of strategic and international studies, a study center based in the United States. The recent American attacks would motivate more than ever to get nuclear weapons, he told New York Times, Rosemary Kelanic, director of the American Defense Priorities Studies Center. Some US officials estimated that an attack on Fordow would delay the Iranian nuclear program up to five years, Times reported.
What we don’t know
If they will move their uranium reserves before US attacks. Grossi said that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi notified him on June 13 – since Israel launched air attacks against Iran – that they would adopt special measures not specified to protect their equipment and nuclear materials. Iran is obliged to reveal whether his nuclear materials are transferred to another installation, said Grossi, although he did not specify if he had done so. As reported, Grossi declared that he asked the IEA inspectors to return to Iranian facilities to account for uranium reserves.
Key history
Trump announced on Saturday that the United States attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahán. The mission, with the name “Midnight Hammer Operation”, was a “precision operation” that aimed Iran’s nuclear capabilities, Hegseth said. The attacks followed the Trump administration for weeks by pressing Iran to put an end to its nuclear program before the conflict between Iran and Israel intensified. Shortly after the attacks, Trump warned Iran against reprisals, stating: “There will be peace or tragedy for Iran.” Vance echoed Trump’s call to La Paz and said that the United States “was not at war with Iran, we are at war with Iran’s nuclear program.” Araghchi accused the United States of an “unprecedented violation” of the UN Founding Charter and International Law, arguing that Trump was “abusing our commitment to diplomacy.”
This article was originally published by Forbes Us.
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