The premiums of aluminum prices in the physical market of the United States have shot themselves until they reach historical maximums due to the imminent threat of tariffs to metal imports used in transport, construction and packaging industries.
The US president, Donald Trump, plans to restore 25% tariffs to aluminum imports from March 12. Tariffs to most imports from Mexico and Canada entered into force on Tuesday.
Buyers in the physical market usually pay the reference price of the aluminum of the London metal bag plus a premium that usually covers taxes, transport and manipulation costs.
The aluminum premium paid in the middle of the United States, above 40 cents a pound or almost $ 900 a metric ton, has risen almost 60% since the beginning of 2025.
“Ultimately, the United States is a net aluminum importer … Producers will not want to pay the tariff, they will try to pass everything to consumers,” said Bank of America Michael Widmer analyst.
“This leaves you with a market in which aluminum units will be potentially diverted outside the United States.”
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Problems in the aluminum supply chain to the US.
Widmer said the cousin could have to rise to about 47 cents the pound to completely take into account a 25%tax. American taxes to aluminum importation will be applied to Argentina, Australia, Canada, Mexico, the countries of the European Union and the United Kingdom.
The Canadian founditions represent most of the exports of primary and aluminum aluminum to the United States, 70% of 3.92 million tons last year, according to the Trade Data Monitor information provider.
“The United States cannot produce all that aluminum, it has no capacity,” said Eivind Kallevik, executive president of Norwegian Hydro Aluminum producer, in an interview after the results of the company’s fourth quarter.
“If the United States wants to continue manufacturing cars and other products, it will need to attract metal. That means higher premiums and costs. ”
The second largest exporter to the United States is Saudi Arabia, not included so far in the list, with a share of 11%, according to Trade Data Monitor.
According to analysts, it is likely that aluminum produced in countries where import levies are applied to Europe, where physical market premiums paid for rights have fallen at least 11 months to 240 dollars the metric ton, 35% less since the beginning of 2025.
With EFE information.
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